The Consumer Sentiment vs. Consumer Spending Puzzle
The episode explores why U.S. consumer spending remains strong despite very low consumer sentiment and several economic headwinds like high interest rates, inflation, and tariffs. Using detailed credit card data, economist Dieran Patkey shows that high-income households are driving much of the growth in spending, effectively propping up the economy. Economist Peter Atwater argues that this creates a top-heavy, "K-shaped" economy and a fragile, illusionary sense of broad prosperity that is vulnerable to shocks in financial markets.
Meta Monopoly Verdict, Trump Signs the Epstein Bill, and Nvidia's Q3 Earnings
Kara Swisher and Scott Galloway discuss Nvidia's blowout Q3 earnings, the sustainability of the current AI boom, and the risks of having the broader economy so dependent on a handful of tech giants. They analyze the federal court ruling that Meta did not break antitrust law with its Instagram and WhatsApp acquisitions, Trump's signing of the bill to release the Jeffrey Epstein files, and the emerging cultural backlash against billionaire entitlement revealed in leaked Epstein-related emails. The conversation also covers Trump's fawning visit with Mohammed bin Salman, Elon Musk's presence at that dinner, the bidding war for Warner Bros. Discovery among Paramount, Comcast, and Netflix, and political implications including New York City Mayor-elect Zoran Mamdani's upcoming meeting with Trump and a possible progressive shift in U.S. politics.
TIP770: Mastering the Markets w/ Andrew Brenton
Host Clay Fink interviews Andrew Brenton of Turtle Creek Asset Management about why he believes public markets have become less efficient and how that shapes his value-oriented investing approach. They discuss Cliff Asness's "The Less Efficient Market Hypothesis," behavioral biases, bubbles, and the impact of passive flows and short-termism. Brenton then walks through Turtle Creek's investment theses and valuation approach for Floor & Decor and Kinsale Capital, and explains how he thinks about cyclicality, intrinsic value, portfolio optimization, and sticking with a high-active-share strategy through periods of underperformance.
Bezos's AI Start-up, Thiel's Nvidia Sell-off, and Trump-MTG Breakup
Kara Swisher and Scott Galloway recap their recent live tour and Scott's appearance on Bill Maher's show before diving into U.S. politics, including Donald Trump's push to release the Epstein files and his public break with Marjorie Taylor Greene. They analyze Greene's apparent pivot and apology, debate a new Republican health care proposal and broader healthcare reform, and then turn to concerns about an AI-driven market bubble, Peter Thiel's NVIDIA sell-off, OpenAI's economics, Jeff Bezos's new AI startup, the recent bond rally, and the fragility created by extreme stock market concentration. The episode closes with wins and fails focused on Seth Meyers vs. Trump, Tom Cruise's honorary Oscar, and worries about systemic financial risk.
Tech Stock Troubles, Epstein Fallout, and SF Mayor Daniel Lurie
Kara Swisher and Scott Galloway host a live show in San Francisco featuring an interview with Mayor Daniel Lurie about housing affordability, crime, tech's role in the city's recovery, and autonomous vehicles. After the interview, they analyze the latest tech and AI stock selloff and systemic risks around market concentration, then discuss the new Jeffrey Epstein document release and how it exposes corruption in clemency and pardons as well as potential political fallout for Donald Trump. They close with segments on restrictive health-based visa rules, cannabis legalization obstacles, and audience questions on AI's labor impact and youth substance use.