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Planet Money

Days of our Tariffs

with James Sneed, Lenny Feldman, Alberto Cavallo

Published November 19, 2025
View Show Notes

About This Episode

Planet Money uses producer James Sneed's surprise tariff bill on a collectible Arthur toy to illustrate how modern tariffs hit individual consumers, including unexpected brokerage fees and customs processes. Trade lawyer Lenny Feldman explains how changes to the de minimis exemption and importer-of-record rules push more tariff and processing costs onto buyers, while economist Alberto Cavallo shows, using large-scale price data, that recent tariffs have raised imported-goods prices by about 6%, domestic-goods prices by about 3.5%, and overall inflation by roughly 0.7 percentage points. The episode concludes that U.S. consumers are clearly paying for tariffs, often in ways that are not visible at the time of purchase.

Topics Covered

Tariffs International trade Inflation Online retail Customs and import duties Consumer price index (CPI) Data-driven decision-making Retail distribution Coffee prices

Disclaimer: We provide independent summaries of podcasts and are not affiliated with or endorsed in any way by any podcast or creator. All podcast names and content are the property of their respective owners. The views and opinions expressed within the podcasts belong solely to the original hosts and guests and do not reflect the views or positions of Summapod.

Quick Takeaways

  • Tariffs on imported consumer goods can show up as surprise bills at the door, including both the tariff itself and substantial brokerage and processing fees charged by carriers.
  • Changes to the de minimis exemption now subject many low-value international shipments (under $800) to duties and paperwork, increasing the chances that individual buyers become responsible for tariff costs.
  • Express carriers like UPS often act as the importer of record, pay or guarantee duties via bonds, and then recover those costs from end customers with additional service fees.
  • Using daily price data on about 350,000 items, imported goods affected by tariffs are on average about 6% more expensive than they would have been absent the tariffs, above normal inflation.
  • Cheaper, low-margin imported products have experienced roughly twice as much tariff-driven inflation as premium versions, because budget brands have less margin to absorb cost shocks.
  • Domestic goods competing with imports have raised prices by about 3.5% due to tariffs, as protected domestic producers take advantage of higher-cost foreign competitors.
  • Alberto Cavallo's analysis suggests tariffs are keeping overall U.S. CPI inflation about 0.7 percentage points higher than it would otherwise be.
  • Consumers can sometimes avoid surprise bills by checking tariff rules for the exporting country, reading seller fine print, and confirming how carriers handle duties and brokerage fees.

Podcast Notes

Introduction and soap-opera framing of the tariff situation

Host sets a cozy, tongue-in-cheek scene to talk about tariffs

Kenny Malone welcomes listeners into a "special place" focused on tariffs[0:49]
• He describes throwing a log on the fire and invites the listener to pull up a chair, signaling a narrative, story-like episode.
Everyday items are now affected by tariffs[1:24]
• Importing a new upholstered wooden chair is said to be 25% more expensive due to a new tariff enacted October 14.
• Scotch is subject to a 10% tariff on goods from the UK, prompting the host to offer bourbon instead.

Tariffs as a televised drama

Host notes multiple plot twists in tariff policy announcements[2:06]
• He references President Trump announcing tariffs on April 2, then unannouncing them, then pausing them for 90 days, and later surprising with additional tariffs.
• Examples of surprise tariffs include a 50% tariff on imported kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities, potential 100% tariffs on branded or patented drugs, and a 100% tariff on movies.
Foreign partners respond negatively to tariffs[2:13]
• The government of Ontario ran a commercial in the U.S. warning that tariffs lead to retaliation and fierce trade wars.
• The ad used out-of-context words from President Reagan criticizing tariffs; the Reagan Foundation objected.
Tariff tensions strain U.S.-Canada trade talks[2:39]
• It is mentioned that President Trump suspended trade talks with Canada, with the host noting that talks were canceled as of November 17 at 2:59 p.m.

Tariffs reach the U.S. Supreme Court

Broad Trump tariffs are challenged legally[3:06]
• Trump's signature economic policy, tariffs, is said to be "taking center stage" at the Supreme Court, involving 12 U.S. states and 5 companies, including a plastic pipe maker, a fishing tackle seller, and a women's cycling and apparel company.
• During oral arguments, several justices are described as skeptical of the tariffs' legality.
Justice Sonia Sotomayor questions the claim that tariffs are not taxes[3:21]
• She asserts that tariffs are "exactly" taxes and emphasizes Congress's constitutional power to tax, challenging the idea that the president can impose them unilaterally.

Tariffs as a "soap opera"

Host likens modern tariff policy to a high-stakes soap opera[4:00]
• He describes tariffs as an economic concept many thought was "dead for like a century" that suddenly reappeared and disrupted trade relationships.
• Trade partners are depicted as sometimes begging to stay by the U.S.'s side and sometimes acting like spurned lovers.
"Days of Our Tariffs" mini-series framing[4:15]
• The host introduces "Days of Our Tariffs" as a possibly recurring Planet Money segment devoted to life under broad-based tariffs.
• This episode is subtitled "the tariff at the door," foreshadowing a story where a colleague faces a direct tariff confrontation.

The central question: Are regular Americans feeling tariffs yet?

Framing the main economic question

Planet Money highlights the most common listener question about tariffs[4:24]
• The show asks whether tariffs are trickling down into the prices that regular Americans pay.
Promise of a clear answer and a cautionary tale[4:54]
• The host says they now have a very clear answer to whether consumers are paying more because of tariffs and tease a cautionary story to illustrate it.

James Sneed's "tariff at the door" story

The UPS visit and surprise demand for payment

Setting: James's apartment in Queens on a warm October afternoon[6:40]
• The doorbell rings repeatedly, irritating James, who dislikes people ringing multiple times.
UPS driver demands a check for $60[7:33]
• James opens the door to a UPS worker in brown uniform and shorts who immediately says he has a package and needs a $60 check.
• James moves from irritation to confusion, with his brain "not computing" why a stranger is asking for a check.
James initially suspects a scam[8:01]
• He describes the situation as feeling like a scam and is unwilling to hand over money to a stranger at the door.

Backstory: The Arthur collectible purchase

James discovers a limited-edition Arthur toy on Instagram[8:27]
• He sees a post from a retro merch company about a limited edition collectible toy from the PBS show "Arthur."
• James thinks it would be perfect for the "future version" of his child.
The gift is meant for his young daughter, but far in the future[8:41]
• James has a four-year-old daughter who has not yet seen Arthur but likely will in the future.
• He plans to keep the toy as a collectible in mint condition, imagining giving it to her when she is in her 20s, 30s, or 40s so she doesn't lose it.
Connection to the character D.W.[9:20]
• The toy is of D.W., described as headstrong and opinionated.
• James says his four-year-old is a version of D.W., reinforcing his emotional connection to the purchase.
James misses the fine print about international orders[10:04]
• The toy costs around $60, and the website had a message at the bottom regarding international orders.
• James admits he did not read the message at the time of purchase and only notices it later when the host asks him to read it.
• He acknowledges, "Should have read that," after seeing the warning about possible duties and fees.

Confrontation with UPS and online fee breakdown

James refuses to pay at the door and learns of an online payment option[10:50]
• James tells the UPS worker he is "absolutely not paying" and questions the demand for an immediate check.
• The UPS worker says James can pay online, which James thinks should have been mentioned first instead of asking for a check from a stranger.
UPS confirms standard practices for tariff payments[11:09]
• Planet Money reports that UPS told them customers who track packages should see an option to pay fees online before delivery.
• If customers do not pay beforehand, UPS may ask for a check at the door, as happened with James.
Itemized tariff and fee breakdown for the DW doll[11:02]
• James notes there were $22.88 in unpaid tariffs on his package.
• The U.S. had a 35% tariff in place with Canada at the time he ordered the collectible, which aligns with the $22.88 tariff on a $60 item.
• UPS also listed $24 in "UPS brokerage and partner government agency fees" and an additional $12 charge if he paid at the door with a check.
The toy ends up in "tariff jail"[11:51]
• James learns his DW doll is being held in a UPS warehouse two neighborhoods away, pending payment of the tariffs and fees.
• The host describes this as the toy being in "tariff jail" awaiting James's decision to "bail" it out.
James balks at the effective doubling of the price[12:12]
• James says he might have accepted $25 in tariffs, but effectively doubling the price of a $60 toy feels "a little brutal."

How low-value imports get hit: Explanation from trade lawyer Lenny Feldman

Introduction to Lenny Feldman and his perspective

Lenny's role and recent workload[12:40]
• Lenny Feldman introduces himself as a managing partner at the customs and trade law firm Sandler, Travis & Rosenberg, based in Miami, Florida.
• He jokes that trade has been "anything but boring" and mentions that his sleep patterns have changed due to nonstop activity.
Slogan: "Make trade boring again"[13:09]
• Lenny references a slogan from an association he represents: "make trade boring again," highlighting how unusually dramatic trade has become.

End of de minimis exemption and rise of importer-of-record issues

De minimis exemption for low-value imports is undone[13:50]
• The host explains that the Trump administration undid the de minimis exemption, which had allowed imports worth $800 or less to enter without paying duties.
• With the exemption removed, every foreign package worth $800 or less now requires duty payment and associated processing work.
Need for an importer of record[14:21]
• Lenny explains that once duties apply to low-value shipments, someone must stand up as the "importer of record."
• He notes that while it could be the individual buyer, in many cases the express courier-FedEx, DHL, UPS-acts as the importer of record.

How express carriers handle tariffs and fees

Carriers front or guarantee duties and recover them from customers[14:12]
• If the carrier serves as importer of record, it will handle tariff payments or obligations and then charge the customer for that service.
• One scenario is that UPS pays the tariff for James's package at the border and then seeks reimbursement from him.
Use of customs bonds and post-release duty payment[15:08]
• Lenny describes another common arrangement: carriers have a bond with U.S. Customs and Border Protection allowing goods to be released before duties are fully paid.
• Under such a bond, the U.S. government lets carriers deliver merchandise while the carrier promises to pay the duties later, typically within 10 to 30 days.
• This timing could explain why a UPS employee appeared at James's door urgently seeking payment.
Risk of abandoned or destroyed packages[15:59]
• Lenny notes there are many goods being abandoned when no one pays the tariffs or accepts the package.
• Carriers may exercise the right to abandon or effectively trash a shipment if the duties are not paid.

Breakdown of James's fee structure and broader consumer impact

UPS charges for paperwork and financial risk[16:31]
• UPS charged James $10 to prepare customs paperwork.
• The tariffs themselves were $22.88.
• UPS also charged a 2% fee for being on the hook for those tariffs, but with a $14 minimum, bringing that fee to $14 rather than $0.46.
• These components explain how a $60 collectible came to require around $50 more in tariffs and fees.
Evidence of similar cases and expected evolution[16:49]
• The host notes online complaints, including Reddit threads, where people are angry about large brokerage and tariff bills from various carriers.
• Lenny expects that over time, more sellers will bake tariff and brokerage costs into upfront prices, so fewer consumers face surprise bills.
• He cites Shein and Temu as examples where the buyer likely does not pay anything at the door, suggesting the seller or platform handles tariffs and fees in advance.
Consumer advice for international online purchases[17:25]
• Lenny advises buyers to ask sellers about duties and brokerage, call the carrier they use, and check what tariffs apply to the exporting country before buying.
• He says that in the new environment, it's not enough to "click and ship"; instead, it's "click, do your homework and ship."

James decides whether to pay and rescue his DW doll

James's stubbornness and eventual payment

He delays payment for about a month[18:27]
• James admits he has not paid the fees out of stubbornness, about a month after the first UPS visit.
Cost-benefit reflection and final decision[18:31]
• James feels embarrassed that others know how much he has paid and is still considering whether to pay roughly $50 more.
• He reasons that since he already spent $60 and will not get that back, he might as well pay the extra to obtain something he genuinely wanted.
• He completes the payment online and confirms that "it's done."
Emotional value of the purchase[19:17]
• James emphasizes he really did want the item and believes he was among the first 10-15 buyers.
• It comes with a DW library card, and his daughter loves her library card, making the toy feel especially fitting.

Macro impact: Are we all paying more because of tariffs?

Tariffs as a tax and main importers

Basic definition and who usually pays[21:53]
• The show reiterates that tariffs are a tax paid by whoever imports something into the country.
• While individuals like James sometimes act as importers, more often the importers are large companies such as Walmart, Ikea, or Publix.

Introduction of economist Alberto Cavallo and his data

Scope of Alberto's price database[22:17]
• Alberto Cavallo, an economist at Harvard Business School, has been tracking consumer prices using daily web-scraped data from big retailers.
• He monitors prices of around 350,000 products from three big-box retailers and two large supermarkets, though he cannot name them due to data agreements.
• The host confirms that items like the iPhone and Life cereal are likely in Alberto's dataset.
Past and present use of the data for tariff analysis[23:09]
• Alberto previously used these data to study Trump tariffs from his first term, writing papers and drawing lessons from that episode.
• He thought tariffs were over but notes that similar, even broader, measures have now returned.

Quantifying the impact of tariffs on imported-goods prices

Direct answer: Are we paying more because of tariffs?[23:46]
• Alberto says there is clear evidence in the microdata that tariffs have affected the prices of many goods.
• He reports that, as of September-October, there is about a 6% increase in the price of imported goods due specifically to tariffs, above their previous trends.
Coffee as a standout example[25:01]
• When asked what he might stockpile, Alberto names coffee as the item whose price has been rising fastest.
• He observes about a 12% price increase for coffee since tariffs began, which he links to the fact that the U.S. imports most of its coffee.
• About a third of U.S. coffee imports come from Brazil, which was subject to a 50% tariff rate.
• The host notes that President Trump recently exempted coffee from tariffs after prices climbed, given heavy reliance on imports.
Market power and pass-through of tariffs[25:58]
• Alberto explains that when the U.S. imports a lot of a product and lacks good alternative sources, foreign producers have power and are less likely to cut prices to absorb tariffs.
• In such cases, more of the tariff cost is passed directly on to U.S. consumers.
• Turkish rugs are another example where tariffs are significantly raising consumer prices because of limited alternative suppliers.

Tariff effects differ by product type and price segment

Different impacts on cheap vs. premium versions of the same product

Observation of divergent price trajectories[26:53]
• Alberto has examined how tariffs affect different varieties of the same imported products, such as cheap versus luxury coffee.
• He finds that tariffs have not significantly affected the final prices of fancy, premium coffees, but they have notably increased prices for cheaper coffees.
• This pattern, where cheaper versions see bigger increases, appears across many imported products that have both budget and premium varieties.
Role of profit margins in absorbing shocks[26:30]
• Alberto explains that cheaper varieties tend to have smaller profit margins, limiting their ability to absorb tariff-related costs.
• Premium brands, with larger markups, can "take the hit" for a while, especially if they believe tariffs are temporary, so they do not raise prices as much.

Tariffs' impact on domestic goods and overall inflation

Domestic products also become more expensive

Measured price increases for U.S.-made goods[27:27]
• Alberto says tariffs are responsible for U.S.-made products increasing in price by about 3.5%.
• He notes this may surprise people because tariffs are nominally a tax on imported goods.
Potential mechanisms: imported inputs and competition[28:20]
• One explanation is that domestic manufacturers use imported inputs-like foreign cotton or buttons-that themselves face tariffs, raising production costs.
• However, Alberto and co-authors conclude that another factor better explains the observed 3.5% increase.

Effect of reduced foreign competition on domestic pricing

Comparing domestic goods with and without foreign competitors[28:52]
• Alberto compares price changes for American products that face foreign competition with those that do not.
• He finds that domestic products competing with imports have experienced larger price increases than domestic products without foreign competitors.
Standard competitive behavior under tariff protection[28:56]
• As tariffs raise the costs of imported goods, foreign competitors become more expensive.
• Protected domestic producers can then raise their own prices, since their competitors' costs have risen.
• Alberto describes this as standard, expected competitive behavior when tariffs protect domestic producers by handicapping imports.

Contribution of tariffs to overall CPI inflation

Goods in Alberto's dataset are only part of the CPI, but effects are significant[29:17]
• Alberto notes that the goods he measures make up only a portion of total consumer spending, but their tariff-driven increases still affect overall inflation.
Estimated impact on the inflation rate[29:54]
• His analysis suggests that without the tariffs, the CPI inflation rate would be about 0.7 percentage points lower.
• He translates this to an annual inflation rate of about 2.2% instead of the observed 2.9%.
Conclusion: Consumers are paying for tariffs and will continue to as long as they remain[29:59]
• The host summarizes that yes, consumers are paying for the tariffs and that this has been happening gradually.
• As long as tariffs stay in place, the host suggests that consumers will likely keep paying more over time.

Resolution of James's story: The fate of the DW collectible

Waiting for the package after payment

James worries about abandonment after delayed payment[31:16]
• Days after paying, James hears nothing and worries that he waited so long UPS might have destroyed the package.

Delivery and unboxing of the DW toy

The box finally arrives[31:31]
• James comes home to find a box on his front steps and confirms it is from the seller.
• He uses a box cutter to open it, expecting to find the $60 collectible he plans to save for his daughter.
Emotional resonance of the packaging and toy[32:02]
• Inside the flap is a picture of D.W. at a chain-link fence wearing sunglasses, which James says looks exactly like his child and is "quintessential" her.
• The toy includes the sunglasses and the little library card, which James highlights as especially meaningful given his daughter's love of her library card.
Total cost and feelings about the purchase[31:48]
• The host estimates James has spent about $111 total, plus emotional "heartache."
• James says he is happy to have the toy in his hands and reiterates that he really wanted it.
Age labeling underscores the long-term gift plan[33:03]
• James notices the box is labeled for ages 13 and up, which the host observes means it was not meant for his four-year-old right now anyway.

Closing soap-opera framing and credits

Future questions for "Days of Our Tariffs"

Open-ended soap-opera-style questions[33:15]
• The host teases future developments: whether Trump's tariffs will survive the Supreme Court, whether U.S.-Canada trade talks will resume, and whether James will buy from international shippers again.

Production credits and acknowledgment of James

Staff credits[33:56]
• The episode was produced by Willa Rubin and edited by Jess Jang, fact-checked by Sierra Juarez, with research help from Vito Emanuel, and engineered by Jimmy Keeley and Maggie Luthar.
• Alex Goldmark is named as the executive producer.
Personal note about James[34:29]
• The host calls James a great dad and says he thinks it is very sweet that James bought the doll for his daughter.

Lessons Learned

Actionable insights and wisdom you can apply to your business, career, and personal life.

1

When ordering goods from international sellers, you must read the fine print and understand how tariffs, duties, and brokerage fees will be handled, or you risk unexpected charges that can double the effective price.

Reflection Questions:

  • • What international purchases have I made recently where I did not fully understand how duties or fees would be applied?
  • • How can I change my online buying process so that I always check tariff and brokerage implications before placing an order?
  • • What specific step (e.g., contacting the seller or carrier, checking tariff rates) will I add to my next international purchase to avoid surprise costs?
2

Tariffs are ultimately paid by someone in the chain, and if you are the importer-directly or indirectly-you should assume some portion of that cost will reach you, even if it is not obvious at checkout.

Reflection Questions:

  • • Where in my personal or business spending might tariff-related costs be quietly embedded in the prices I pay?
  • • How would my purchasing choices change if I assumed that most trade barriers and taxes are eventually passed on to me as a consumer?
  • • What product categories should I review to see whether domestic or alternative suppliers could reduce my exposure to tariff-driven price increases?
3

Low-margin products and businesses have far less room to absorb shocks like tariffs, which means policies that raise input costs can disproportionately affect cheaper goods and lower-income consumers.

Reflection Questions:

  • • In my own budget, which items are low-cost but essential, and how sensitive am I to price increases in those categories?
  • • How might I adjust my planning or advocacy if I recognize that seemingly neutral policies can hit low-margin, budget products hardest?
  • • What can I do-personally or professionally-to build a bit more margin or buffer so that unexpected cost shocks are less damaging?
4

Competitive dynamics matter: when tariffs raise the costs of foreign competitors, domestic producers often raise their own prices rather than keep them unchanged, so protectionist policies can reduce price pressure for everyone in a market.

Reflection Questions:

  • • Where have I seen situations in which reduced competition allowed suppliers to raise prices or lower quality without losing customers?
  • • How could I incorporate an understanding of competitive landscapes when predicting how a new rule, tax, or policy might affect prices I care about?
  • • What current spending area could I examine to see whether increased competition (e.g., alternative vendors or imports) might help keep my costs down?
5

Data-driven analysis, like tracking hundreds of thousands of prices over time, is essential for distinguishing normal inflation from policy-driven changes and for understanding who actually bears the cost of economic decisions.

Reflection Questions:

  • • In what areas of my life or work am I relying on anecdotes or intuition instead of data to judge the impact of a decision or policy?
  • • How might systematically tracking a few key metrics (prices, costs, response times, etc.) change the way I evaluate what is working or not?
  • • What is one concrete example where collecting better data over the next month could help me make a more informed, less biased decision?
6

Emotional value and long-term meaning can justify higher costs, but it is still wise to separate sentimental reasons from avoidable financial surprises when making purchasing decisions.

Reflection Questions:

  • • Which recent purchases did I make primarily for emotional or symbolic reasons, and were the extra costs truly acceptable to me?
  • • How can I more consciously balance sentimental value against financial prudence when I am tempted to overspend on a meaningful item?
  • • What future purchase that I deeply care about could I plan for more carefully now, so I minimize unnecessary fees while preserving its emotional significance?

Episode Summary - Notes by Taylor

Days of our Tariffs
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