649. Should Ohio State (and Michigan, and Clemson) Join the N.F.L.?

with Stefan Szymanski, Dominique Foxworth, Victor Matheson, Roger Bennett

Published October 10, 2025
View Show Notes

About This Episode

Stephen Dubner explores whether U.S. pro leagues like the NFL and NBA should move from closed, monopolistic structures toward a European-style promotion and relegation system that could incorporate top college programs. Guests discuss the historical split between amateur and professional sports in the U.S. and Europe, the economic incentives in closed vs. open leagues, and what a merger between NCAA football/basketball and the major pro leagues might look like. While many theoretical benefits for fans, athletes, and communities are identified, the guests argue that entrenched financial interests make such a shift highly unlikely in practice.

Topics Covered

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Quick Takeaways

  • The NFL and NBA operate as closed cartels, in stark contrast to European soccer's open pyramid system with promotion and relegation.
  • A listener's question about short NFL careers and monopoly power sparked an exploration of whether U.S. leagues should adopt a multi-tier structure that includes college teams.
  • Historically, U.S. sports split amateurs and professionals, while European systems integrated them, leading to very different league structures and cultural roles for sport.
  • European-style promotion and relegation sustains many more professional teams and creates meaningful stakes for both top and bottom clubs, but it also introduces major financial volatility.
  • College teams function as powerful community institutions in the U.S. and already resemble European clubs in their social role, but they currently supply talent to the pros essentially for free.
  • Economists argue that a merged pyramid could expand opportunity and fan interest, yet owners' desire to protect multi‑billion‑dollar franchises makes relegation a non‑starter.
  • Recent changes in college athlete compensation (NIL and direct pay) move NCAA sports toward professionalism but still leave a huge spending gap versus the NFL.
  • Attempts in Europe to form a closed "Super League" show that powerful clubs are actually trying to imitate the American cartel model rather than the other way around.

Podcast Notes

Listener question and episode premise: could U.S. pro leagues adopt a promotion-relegation pyramid with college teams?

Origin of the question from a prior Freakonomics episode on NFL players as employees

Listener James McGinty reacted to an earlier episode about NFL players' working conditions and short careers[1:14]
• The earlier episode, "Their Employee" (number 557), examined daily life of NFL athletes and highlighted survey data gathered by the Players' Union to pressure owners for better workplace conditions.
• The survey revealed some surprisingly shoddy operations and stingy behavior by certain NFL owners, even though owners are less exploitative than they used to be.
McGinty was shocked by the average NFL career length[2:06]
• He noted that the average NFL career is just 3.3 years and called this "essentially a product of the monopoly system that is the NFL."
McGinty contrasted the NFL with European soccer's pyramid system[2:25]
• He pointed out that European players often start at 17 or 18 and can play into their mid‑30s, continuing in lower divisions even as salaries fall.
• He defined the pyramid as top professional leagues with multiple lower professional tiers beneath them.
The listener proposed the NFL consider abandoning its monopoly structure[2:45]
• He asked whether the NFL should end its monopoly and move to a pyramid system, prompting Dubner to devote not just one but two episodes to the idea.

Recap of part one: merging pro leagues with college programs and introducing promotion and relegation

Dubner reviews the prior episode's basic proposal[2:57]
• The suggestion was that the NFL and NBA might pursue a new type of expansion by merging with top-level college football and basketball programs.
• Recent legal changes mean college sports economics will increasingly resemble professional sports, weakening the old amateur model.
Concept of promotion and relegation between pros and colleges[3:19]
• Dubner imagines the best college teams being promoted into the top pro level while the worst pro teams are demoted into lower tiers.
• This would shift from a closed, monopolistic system to a more open and competitive market structure in U.S. sports.
Acknowledgment of complexity and controversy[4:30]
• Dubner concedes there are "a zillion details" and that many people will instinctively hate the idea, but he argues it is worth thinking through carefully.

Historical divergence of U.S. and European sports systems

Introduction of Stefan Szymanski and the U.S.-European contrast

Stefan Szymanski's background and research focus[5:41]
• He introduces himself as a professor of sport management at the University of Michigan and describes himself as an economist who studies sports.
• His work goes beyond pure economics to include history and culture to understand how different forces interact in sports.
How league structures evolve[6:53]
• Szymanski says leagues are "human-designed structures" rather than natural phenomena, but they evolve based on concerns that may date back 150 years and often no longer fit modern priorities.

Lack of collegiate sport culture outside the U.S.

No real analog to U.S. college sports in the U.K.[7:18]
• Szymanski says there is "nothing like" U.S. collegiate sport in the U.K. or elsewhere today, despite the idea originally coming from England.
• British universities historically played early versions of soccer, rugby football, cricket, and rowing, and British students sometimes toured U.S. colleges like Yale and Harvard.
How American colleges adopted sports[7:08]
• American college students picked up the British idea that collegiate sport "would be fun," leading to the development of the U.S. college sports tradition.

Origins of professional sports and the amateur-professional split

Baseball as the model of modern professional sport in the U.S.[8:04]
• Baseball emerged in the 1840s and quickly gained paying spectators, which created pressure for players to be paid despite pride in amateur status.
• In 1871, a group of players formed a professional league-the National Association of Professional Baseball Players-after amateurs refused to associate with them; this association later folded.
• In 1876, the National League was created, becoming the basis for professional baseball and, by extension, the U.S. model of professional leagues that strictly separate amateurs and professionals.
English soccer's different choice in 1885[8:52]
• When English soccer faced the same amateur vs. professional tension in 1885, they looked at the American example but chose not to expel professionals.
• Amateurs remained suspicious of professionals, but both stayed within a single national association, allowing amateurs and professionals to play alongside each other.
• Szymanski says this integration vs. segregation of amateurs and professionals is a key reason U.S. and non-U.S. sports systems evolved so differently.

Modern pathways for elite athletes: U.K. vs. U.S.

Pathway for talented athletes in England[10:03]
• He explains that in England, if you are any good, you likely sign a pro contract at 17 or 18 (or younger) after moving through a club's youth development system starting around age 10.
• Such players typically do not go to university if they are serious elite prospects.
Pathway for an American who wants to play in the NFL[10:31]
• In the U.S., a prospective NFL player must play high school football, then college football, and then hope to be drafted into the NFL.
Who benefits from the U.S. system?[10:22]
• Szymanski says the system makes sense for NFL owners because colleges provide fully trained, developed talent essentially for free.
• It also benefits colleges as a powerful marketing tool to attract students and donations.

NFL career realities and player risk: Dominique Foxworth's experience

Foxworth's college and early NFL career

College experience under strict amateurism[11:15]
• Foxworth recalls that when his college coach got a contract extension, assistant coaches received Cadillac deals while players received a DVD player and a bag of sweatshirts.
His first NFL contract and limited security[11:52]
• He signed a rookie deal worth about $1.3 million over four years, which is a large number for a 22‑year‑old but represents his entire financial future.
• He notes that initial contract terms are largely determined by draft position, and the critical goal is to perform well enough to earn a second and possibly third contract.
• Foxworth did eventually secure a larger second contract and acknowledges he made "life‑changing money."

Psychological pressure and volatility of an NFL career

Draft-day expectations vs. reality[12:45]
• He says being drafted was not a euphoric, miraculous moment; instead, it immediately felt like time to go to work and "figure it out."
Career ups and downs, trades, and mental strain[13:15]
• After a strong rookie season, things went less well; a teammate at his position was killed, the team traded for high‑profile cornerback Dre Bly, and Foxworth saw that he was unlikely to be the long‑term answer.
• He publicly expressed frustration in the media, which likely reduced his perceived value to the team and preceded a trade to the Atlanta Falcons.
• He describes that season in Atlanta (after the Michael Vick conviction and with a rookie quarterback and coach) as a "tough year" emotionally, akin to depression though he was never formally diagnosed.
• He felt huge relief after playing well and getting through that pressure-filled season.
Turning performance into a big contract[14:27]
• In Atlanta, injuries ahead of him and strong play, combined with Matt Ryan's success as a rookie quarterback, put him in high‑leverage games that helped him earn a significant contract with the Baltimore Ravens.
• He describes the big contract mostly as a feeling of relief and the achievement of a major financial-security goal set since childhood.

Injury, contract insurance, and life after football

Career-altering ACL injury and insurance payout[15:46]
• On the first day of training camp of his second Ravens season, he tore his ACL during the NFL lockout and could not rehab at the team facility.
• He had purchased insurance on his contract at his agent's advice, which allowed him to cash in the policy after attempting a comeback and playing a few more games.
• He then chose to leave football for business school, using the insurance as a bridge.
How common is contract insurance?[15:46]
• Foxworth says career-ending injuries are less common now, making insurance not extremely expensive, but he is unsure how many teammates carried similar coverage since it is not a frequent locker-room topic.
Counterfactual career without the big contract[17:01]
• He had already started looking at business schools and, with characteristic cornerback confidence, believes he would have been "really successful" in another path.
• He notes, however, that most players who never reach a second NFL contract do not have great second acts professionally because the effort required for football leaves them in a harder position to succeed elsewhere.

Promotion-relegation and international league structures: Victor Matheson's perspective

All-or-nothing nature of NFL careers vs. European soccer opportunities

Professional options below the top level[17:38]
• Matheson says in the U.S. it is "kind of all or nothing"-you either make the NFL or you do not, with only limited alternatives like arena football or the Canadian Football League.
• In European soccer, there are many professional jobs below the top division in countries like the U.K., Germany, and Italy, producing more "middle-class" players rather than just multimillionaires and non‑players.

Matheson's enthusiasm for adopting promotion and relegation in U.S. sports

General support for the idea[18:18]
• Matheson says he "fundamentally" loves the idea of promotion and relegation and calls soccer his true passion.
• He notes that almost every soccer league in the world uses promotion and relegation, though not in the U.S.
How promotion and relegation works in the Premier League[19:18]
• The English Premier League has 20 teams; the worst teams at season's end are relegated and replaced by the best teams from the league immediately below.

Upsides of promotion and relegation for competition and fan interest

Games at the bottom of the table still matter[19:21]
• Matheson highlights that matches between the worst teams have high stakes because relegation is on the line, which keeps the season compelling from top to bottom.
Minor leagues gain real stakes[19:25]
• He contrasts U.S. minor league baseball-where there is "literally nothing to play for" beyond entertainment-with lower-league soccer, where teams compete for promotion.
• In minor league baseball, success can hurt a team as good players are called up to the parent club, while in promotion systems, success yields advancement.
Impact on player movement and rosters[20:32]
• Relegated teams often hold "fire sales" of players, causing major roster turnover; promoted teams also frequently replace players who got them promoted with higher‑quality recruits for the top division.
Parachute payments and financial cushioning[20:45]
• The Premier League uses "parachute payments" to soften the financial blow for relegated teams, which face dramatic revenue loss when moving to a lower division.
• Relegation means losing shared Premier League media rights and drawing smaller crowds because you host less glamorous opponents than giants like Manchester United or Arsenal.

Infrastructure investment and franchise stability

Stadium decisions under closed vs. open leagues[22:16]
• In a closed league like the NFL, teams can count on long-term membership and justify large stadium investments.
• For "yo-yo" clubs (frequently promoted and relegated) like Wolverhampton, Bolton, or Burnley, it is hard to commit to expensive stadiums when future league status is uncertain.
Franchise relocation vs. local continuity[22:43]
• Matheson notes that European soccer does not see franchise relocation of the sort common in U.S. pro sports.
• Instead of moving, a club might drift into irrelevance over time, as happened to Wrexham in Wales before being revived by investors Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney.

Scale of participation: European pyramids vs. U.S. monopolies

Number of teams and players[24:09]
• In the NFL, there are around 32 teams with about 1,700 active players; the NBA has fewer than 600 players.
• In Spain, with about one‑seventh of the U.S. population, there are more than 8,000 professional soccer players across multiple tiers.
• Lower-level leagues in Europe pay less, but they expand career opportunities for athletes, coaches, staff, and local workers in and around stadiums.
Geographic footprint and community impact[25:07]
• An open pyramid allows pro franchises in smaller cities and towns, increasing both economic and social benefits, whereas the NFL maintains scarcity and geographic balance with only 32 teams.
• Szymanski notes that NFL teams are effectively protected from nearby competition by rules such as prohibiting another team within 75 miles.
• He mentions that whether these closed-league arrangements are abusive monopolies has been litigated in U.S. antitrust cases, with mixed results.

Imagining a merger between NCAA and NFL/NBA and a U.S. pyramid

Emotional stakes of promotion and relegation: the Leicester-Watford example

Dramatic playoff for promotion[27:46]
• Dubner recounts the 2013 playoff between Leicester City and Watford in the English second tier, where the winner would move one step from promotion to the Premier League.
• In stoppage time, Leicester earned a penalty that was saved twice, followed by Watford immediately scoring at the other end, creating an "extraordinary finish" and sending Watford on.
Leicester's subsequent miracle season[29:30]
• The following season Leicester did get promoted, and in 2016 they won the Premier League against traditional powerhouses, an achievement Dubner calls one of the most miraculous in sports history.
• A clip from a prior Freakonomics episode features Roger Bennett describing Leicester as a previously peripheral team rising from the bottom to the top of the league in 12 months.

College teams as community institutions akin to European clubs

Szymanski's view of American college teams[30:51]
• He says an American college team looks much more like a European soccer club than a pure business, serving as a representative of a community.
• Even when trying to make money, college teams "almost never" do, and they tend to embrace a broader social mission.

Dubner's heretical proposal: merge NCAA football with the NFL

Framing the merger idea[31:46]
• Dubner observes that the NFL seeks further growth but faces limits, while college football is popular yet uncertain as it drifts away from amateurism.
• He proposes that NCAA football and the NFL merge into a multi‑tier system where top college teams can be promoted into the NFL and weak NFL teams relegated.
Szymanski's reaction based on cultural background[33:00]
• He says that to someone not born or raised in America, the idea seems as obvious and sensible as "motherhood and apple pie" but that Americans steeped in existing traditions might see it as horrible.
Perceived threats and incentives for NFL vs. NCAA[34:08]
• Szymanski expects NFL owners would oppose the plan because no team wants the risk of relegation.
• He argues the NCAA might be more attracted, as it has structural similarities to European soccer: many regional competitions, many teams, and big disparities between top and bottom programs.
• He notes that promotion and relegation solves alignment and conference-hierarchy problems by continuously and fairly sorting teams by performance.

Legal and scheduling barriers: Saturdays vs. Sundays

Congressional role in reserving game days[34:18]
• Szymanski explains there was a congressional agreement reserving Saturdays for amateurs and Sundays for the NFL, originally to protect colleges.
• He believes if colleges told Congress they no longer needed such protection, Congress would likely allow Sunday college games, and courts would not look kindly on NFL attempts to block this.

Could college teams compete with NFL teams in a merged system?

Imagining a Wolverines-Cowboys Super Bowl[35:31]
• Dubner asks Szymanski to imagine a Super Bowl in 10 years between the Dallas Cowboys and the University of Michigan Wolverines.
• Szymanski jokingly says the Wolverines would win and argues that Michigan already operates a professional-grade football organization with large spending, elite facilities, recruiting, and training.
Would college programs ultimately dominate?[36:21]
• He contends college football is more deeply embedded in U.S. culture than the NFL and is less focused on profit maximization, more on "just winning."
• He speculates that in a promotion-relegation system, college teams might end up dominating while many NFL teams would be relegated.
Community-building role of promotion and relegation[36:54]
• Szymanski says promotion and relegation sustain clubs in communities by preserving hope for improvement even when teams are not currently successful.
• He argues fans should want more competition and teams fully committed to winning, without distracting organizational priorities, and that promotion-relegation serves those interests.

Practical roadmap: how might such a system start?

Stepwise approach via college conferences[36:21]
• Szymanski suggests the SEC and Big Ten, as emerging dominant conferences, could first adopt promotion-relegation internally to align teams and give smaller schools a path upward.
• If that worked, the NCAA could then seek promotion-relegation ties into the NFL, and if rebuffed, threaten to schedule on Sundays.

Practical obstacles and stakeholder incentives in creating a U.S. pyramid

Realistic competitive gap: NFL teams vs. top college programs

Matheson's hypothetical Browns vs. Ohio State matchup[41:30]
• Dubner imagines the worst NFL team, the Cleveland Browns, playing top college team Ohio State, and Matheson expects the Browns to win by at least 30 points.
• He attributes this to massive spending differences rather than just coaching or scheme.
Spending differences between NFL and college teams[42:15]
• Matheson notes the NFL salary cap means each team spends roughly $250 million on talent annually.
• He estimates Ohio State's NIL and related player spending at about $20 million, roughly one‑tenth of an NFL team's player budget.
• He says money does not guarantee wins but "puts a thumb on the scale" heavily in favor of higher-spending teams.

Advantages of promotion and relegation for league quality and markets

Replacing chronically weak or poorly placed franchises[43:26]
• Matheson questions why other NFL owners would want to keep chronically mismanaged teams like the Browns in the league, given their persistent underperformance.
• He cites the Miami (Florida) Marlins as an example of a team in a poor baseball market that nonetheless remains in MLB because of the closed-league structure.
• Promotion-relegation could gradually replace such teams with better-managed or better-located clubs, leading to more attractive matchups and higher media revenues.

Why current owners have little incentive to adopt relegation

Protection of franchise value[45:51]
• Matheson says owners of roughly $5‑billion franchises do not want the risk of being turned into minor-league operations via relegation.
• He describes the NFL as effectively a cartel where buying in guarantees permanent membership, which is enormously valuable to owners.
What Matheson would do as "emperor of professional sports"[46:19]
• First, he would stop taxpayer-funded stadium construction, arguing teams should "build your own damn stadium" rather than expect public subsidies.
• Second, he would move toward paying college players directly rather than relying on clunky NIL arrangements, emphasizing that people should be allowed to earn money for their work.
• Third, he affirms that promotion and relegation is more fun for fans but calls it "wildly disruptive" to move from closed to open systems, predicting it will not happen in major U.S. leagues without a powerful overlord.

Power, politics, and resistance: Dominique Foxworth on why owners won't choose a pyramid

Foxworth's general stance on the idea

Crazy but not necessarily bad[51:28]
• Foxworth says he does not oppose the idea in principle, but labels it "crazy" in the sense that many good ideas are radical, while stressing the difficulty of persuading pro leagues to adopt it.

NFL owners' mindset from CBA negotiations

What owners focus on in high-level talks[51:38]
• Drawing on his experience in 2011 CBA negotiations, Foxworth says owners were most focused on revenue and profitability targets.
• He notes owners argued that current players deserved less money than they were getting, underscoring how hard it would be to convince them to pay additional stakeholders like colleges.

Moral arguments vs. incentive-based arguments

Dubner's initial framing as "do the right thing"[53:14]
• Dubner suggests the NFL has enjoyed billions in free value from college programs-training and star creation-and should now pay, likening it to a reparations-style argument.
Foxworth's critique of moral appeals to billionaires[54:42]
• Foxworth says Dubner is assuming owners will act because it is "the right thing to do," which does not align with how billionaire franchise owners actually think.
• He quips that his CBA experience convinced him he could handle Harvard Business School, not that he should start a nonprofit to compensate those who helped owners get rich.

Colleges as potential competitors to the NFL

Threat of moving college games to Sunday[54:25]
• Dubner posits that colleges could undercut the NFL by scheduling major games on Sundays, leveraging huge alumni bases and emotional attachment.
• Foxworth acknowledges that only college football could realistically compete with the NFL, citing how the NFL itself encroached on the NBA's Christmas Day tradition.
Political leverage and fan preferences[56:09]
• Dubner argues that members of Congress have strong ties to colleges, and that local attachment to college sports may exceed that to pro teams, giving colleges potential political leverage.
• Foxworth counters that passionate college fans may not want their sport merged with the pros and that NFL owners also wield immense influence through money and campaign contributions.

Is pro-college integration good for the sport?

Dubner's vision of organic expansion through a pyramid[57:41]
• He frames promotion-relegation as an organic way for the NFL to expand, deepening stakes in lower tiers and drawing college football into a shared pyramid.
Foxworth's skepticism about who wants it[58:28]
• Foxworth doubts that fans of either pro or college teams, or pro owners, would truly want matchups like a 49ers-Stanford game, which he predicts would be a one‑sided blowout.
• He repeatedly returns to the question of stakeholder incentives, saying he has a hard time identifying a constituency with enough power and desire to push the change through.

Lessons from minor league baseball and European moves toward U.S.-style cartels

European big clubs' attempt to imitate the NFL model

The aborted European Super League[55:13]
• Dubner describes plans for a European Super League, which would have been a closed competition with founding members enjoying permanent status, akin to a cartel.
• American owners of English clubs like Liverpool, Manchester United, and Arsenal-including Stan Kroenke, who also owns multiple U.S. franchises-were strong backers.
• Fan protests over perceived threats to traditional competitions like the Champions League forced the Super League to retreat, at least temporarily.
Attractiveness of closed cartels[55:16]
• Dubner notes that big European clubs still have strong incentives to emulate the American model, which offers pricing power, quality control, and near‑guaranteed growth in franchise value.

Minor league baseball's boom-and-bust and the role of hope

Post-World War II expansion and collapse[56:49]
• Szymanski recounts that after World War II, the number of minor league baseball teams jumped from 100 to 450 in about three years, with attendance rising from 10 million to 40 million.
• Within a decade, the system shrank back to around 100 teams and 10 million in attendance.
Television's impact in the U.S. vs. Europe[55:46]
• The standard story is that TV killed minor league baseball; TV ownership grew from 10% of U.S. households in 1950 to 90% in 1960, and by 1960 average viewers watched about 5.5 hours per day.
• He notes that while TV similarly reduced soccer attendance in Europe, soccer clubs did not die off as minor league baseball teams did.
Why promotion and relegation sustained European clubs[56:29]
• Szymanski attributes European clubs' survival to promotion and relegation, which preserved hope that teams could rise again even after declines.

Likelihood of adopting a promotion-relegation merger in the U.S.

Szymanski's probability estimate[57:34]
• Asked about the chance of an NFL-NCAA or NBA-NCAA merger with promotion and relegation in the next 20 years, Szymanski puts the probability at less than 5%.
Dubner's closing reflections and call for listener input[57:57]
• Dubner admits the estimate hurts his heart but says he likes long shots, and he invites listeners to share their thoughts on the idea via email or ratings and reviews.

Lessons Learned

Actionable insights and wisdom you can apply to your business, career, and personal life.

1

Incentive structures, not moral arguments, largely determine whether powerful institutions embrace or resist structural change, even when the change would arguably improve fairness or enjoyment for fans.

Reflection Questions:

  • • Where in your work or community are you relying on appeals to fairness instead of aligning incentives for key decision-makers?
  • • How could you redesign the rewards and risks in a current project so that the people with the most power actually benefit from the change you want?
  • • What is one initiative you care about where you could reframe your pitch from "this is right" to "this is in your interest" within the next month?
2

Closed systems protect incumbents and asset values, while open systems with promotion and relegation create more opportunity and competition but introduce volatility and risk.

Reflection Questions:

  • • In your career or business, are you operating more like a closed cartel or an open, merit-based system, and how does that affect innovation around you?
  • • How might introducing more competition or performance-based mobility in your team or organization increase both opportunity and accountability?
  • • What is one area of your life where you could tolerate more short-term risk in exchange for long-term growth and wider opportunity?
3

Paths that demand total commitment, like aspiring to reach the NFL, can deliver outsized rewards for a few but leave most participants underprepared for a second act if they fall short.

Reflection Questions:

  • • What high-commitment goal are you pursuing that might be crowding out time to build skills for alternative futures?
  • • How can you design your current pursuits so that even if your primary plan fails, you have transferable skills, relationships, or credentials to rely on?
  • • What specific step could you take this quarter to hedge your main career bet without undermining your current performance?
4

Organizations deeply embedded in communities, like college teams or local clubs, derive durable strength from identity and loyalty that goes beyond short-term profit maximization.

Reflection Questions:

  • • Where do you see the strongest sense of community in your own life, and what makes those institutions feel different from pure businesses?
  • • How might you strengthen the sense of shared identity and mission in your team, company, or neighborhood to make it more resilient?
  • • What is one concrete action you could take this month to contribute to a community institution that matters to you?
5

Historical design choices-such as separating amateurs and professionals in U.S. sports-can shape ecosystems for generations, often outlasting the original reasons for those choices.

Reflection Questions:

  • • What long-standing rules or norms in your organization exist mainly because "that's how we've always done it" rather than because they still serve a clear purpose?
  • • How could you systematically review one such inherited rule to see whether it's still aligned with today's goals and realities?
  • • What small experiment could you run to test an alternative structure or rule without committing to a full, risky overhaul?

Episode Summary - Notes by Micah

649. Should Ohio State (and Michigan, and Clemson) Join the N.F.L.?
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