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We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network

BTC253: Quantum Computing and Bitcoin w/ Charles Edwards (Bitcoin Podcast)

with Charles Edwards

Published November 12, 2025
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About This Episode

Host Preston Pysh speaks with Charles Edwards about what quantum computing is, how it works at a high level, and why it matters for Bitcoin's security. They distinguish physical from logical qubits, review industry forecasts for when quantum computers could break current cryptography, and examine Bitcoin's specific vulnerabilities and proposed upgrades like BIP360. The conversation also covers migration logistics, governance challenges for the Bitcoin community, and how to think about investing in quantum technologies as both an opportunity and a hedge.

Topics Covered

Blockchain technology Crypto Quantum computing Artificial intelligence Investing Risk and uncertainty Data privacy and surveillance Financial modeling Post-quantum cryptography

Disclaimer: We provide independent summaries of podcasts and are not affiliated with or endorsed in any way by any podcast or creator. All podcast names and content are the property of their respective owners. The views and opinions expressed within the podcasts belong solely to the original hosts and guests and do not reflect the views or positions of Summapod.

Quick Takeaways

  • Quantum computers use quantum states to evaluate many possibilities simultaneously, enabling massive speedups on certain problems like breaking cryptographic keys.
  • There is a critical distinction between physical qubits (with high error rates) and logical qubits (error-corrected units), and Bitcoin's risk is tied to the growth of logical qubits.
  • Multiple independent sources, including industry experts and government entities, estimate a high likelihood that quantum computers could threaten standard encryption, including Bitcoin's ECC, within roughly 2-9 years.
  • Bitcoin's earliest address types and any addresses with exposed public keys are particularly vulnerable to Shor's algorithm once sufficient quantum capacity exists.
  • Proposals like BIP360 aim to introduce post-quantum signatures to Bitcoin, but migrating users and UTXOs to new key schemes could take many months or even years due to blockspace limits and larger signature sizes.
  • The biggest risk is not only the technology itself but the Bitcoin community's ability to reach consensus and deploy a solution before a quantum attack becomes feasible.
  • Traditional financial institutions are already moving toward or have implemented quantum-resistant encryption, while Bitcoin's current setup leaves it as one of the most attractive honeypots for a future quantum adversary.
  • Quantum technologies are already generating revenue in areas like drug discovery and financial optimization, and Charles Edwards views a diversified basket of quantum companies as a hedge alongside his substantial Bitcoin holdings.

Podcast Notes

Introduction and episode setup

Show intro and topic framing

Host introduces the Bitcoin Fundamentals podcast and today's topic[0:02]
• Preston explains that the episode will explore what quantum computing really is, where it's headed, and what it means for Bitcoin security
Outline of quantum topics to be discussed[0:06]
• They will break down physical vs logical qubits, debate timelines for Q-Day, and talk about upgrades like BIP360 that might protect Bitcoin
• They will also touch on broader quantum impacts on AI, materials science, and finance

Guest introduction and reunion

Preston welcomes Charles Edwards back to the show[1:42]
• Preston notes that it's been about four or five years since Charles was last on the podcast
Framing quantum computing as a difficult but important topic[1:10]
• Preston says quantum computing is a difficult topic but they will try to make it accessible and talk through the reality of it, especially as it relates to Bitcoin
• He notes Charles is investing in the quantum space, which makes him curious about applications beyond Bitcoin

Explaining quantum computing in simple terms

Preston's motivation to define quantum computing

Why defining quantum computing is hard but necessary[2:17]
• Preston describes making a video on quantum computing to first define what it is and how it works so he could understand what real-world problems it might solve
• He notes that if you can't describe what it is and what it does, it's hard to reason about its implications

Charles' layman overview of quantum computing

Classical computing vs quantum at a high level[2:39]
• Charles contrasts traditional transistor chips, which work in ones and zeros with a single state at a time, with quantum systems where things can have multiple states simultaneously
• He notes that in normal life you can be in one place or another, but not both at once; at the quantum level things behave differently and this troubled Einstein
Quantum states and probability[2:55]
• Charles explains that at the atomic level states can be probability-based and occupy multiple values at once
• A quantum computer attempts to replicate these quantum states and physics, allowing multiple values to be effectively modeled at the same time
Why this matters for computation and encryption[3:05]
• In programming and encryption, this means you can model many possibilities simultaneously and quickly zero in on an optimal solution
• As an example, instead of sequentially trying PIN combinations on a lock, a quantum computer can effectively simulate many combinations at once and solve it quickly
Evidence of extreme quantum speedups[3:25]
• Charles mentions Google's Willow chip solving a mathematical equation that would take current supercomputers longer than the age of the universe (trillions of years), illustrating quantum's potential
• He says this allows unlocking innovations and solving functions and models that were previously considered impossible

Early industry use cases and misconception that quantum is not useful yet

Real-world applications already being tested or used[4:46]
• Charles cites AstraZeneca using quantum computing in drug discovery trials and achieving significant improvements in speed and optimization
• He notes defense applications, including communications and landmine detection, as other emerging use cases
• HSBC has done a case study showing quantum improving bond optimization processes in finance
Refuting the claim that quantum has no practical use today[4:27]
• Charles argues against the idea that quantum has no current practical use, stating it is already here and being used, though still very early in development
• He compares today's stage of quantum to using ChatGPT five or six years ago, which Sam Altman described as a terrible product at the time
• He believes quantum is in the early stages of a typical tech adoption hockey stick curve

Extended explanation of quantum concepts and key components

Preston's three key components of quantum computing

Superposition, entanglement, and interference[6:04]
• Preston describes superposition as a required property where quantum bits can be in multiple states at once
• He explains entanglement as coupling two atoms or electrons in superposition so that they become linked
• Interference between entangled qubits is what lets the system arrive at an immediate solution to the computational problem
Matrix/eigenvector analogy for simultaneous solving[7:47]
• Preston uses the example of solving three equations with three unknowns arranged in a matrix, where classical methods solve variables sequentially
• He says to imagine those equations and variables as interacting through interference, producing the answer immediately instead of line-by-line solving
• He asks listeners to then scale that intuition up to many more variables and equations to get a feel for quantum's parallelism

Physical vs logical qubits and error rates

Definitions and magnitudes[8:38]
• Charles explains that physical qubits are the raw qubits in hardware, but they suffer from relatively large error rates
• Logical qubits are error-corrected constructs that behave like essentially error-free qubits for practical computation
• He clarifies that when he speaks about qubits in the conversation he generally means logical qubits
Implications for breaking encryption like Bitcoin[9:24]
• Charles notes that many people quote huge qubit requirements (millions) to break encryption, but those numbers refer to physical qubits with errors
• At the logical qubit level, the requirement is much smaller-on the order of a couple thousand qubits to break Bitcoin's elliptic curve cryptography, according to a key paper he cites later
• He emphasizes that error rates have been dropping significantly in recent years and that adding more qubits can actually compress error rates

Noise, scaling challenges, and timeline uncertainties

Preston's explanation of noise and entanglement fragility

How noise disrupts large entangled systems[8:58]
• Preston notes that entangled qubits must remain entangled for the computation to work, and any heat or vibration introduces noise that can decohere them
• He likens this to one equation in a system becoming fuzzy, making it impossible to solve the whole system reliably
• He points out that scaling from a few qubits to tens of thousands compounds these noise challenges
Why noise complicates timeline predictions[10:58]
• Preston suggests noise control is at the heart of the debate between more bullish and bearish quantum timelines
• He mentions that this makes it difficult to project timelines with precision and leads to a wide range of opinions, including Charles being very bullish and others being very bearish

Charles' view on exponential progress and Q-Day timelines

Quibit counts growing faster than Moore's law[11:54]
• Charles says the number of qubits is doubling roughly every 18 months, faster than Moore's law, resembling Bitcoin's log-scale growth chart
• He notes error rates are also improving by about an extra order of magnitude per year
Multiple sources converging on a 2-9 year risk window[12:35]
• He references the U.S. Department of Defense reportedly stating there is a tangible risk of Q-Day within three years
• He explains that Bitcoin's weakest link is its elliptic curve cryptography and that it is weaker than RSA, so ECC would break earlier than RSA under quantum attack
• He cites Jameson Lopp estimating a 50% risk in 4-9 years for Bitcoin's security, implying non-zero risk earlier than that
• He mentions Pierre-Luc with a PhD in quantum-related fields estimating 2-6 years, and McKinsey estimating Q-Day for RSA in 2-10 years
• He cites a 2017 quantum paper that says about 2,133 logical qubits are needed to break Bitcoin's encryption, authored by researchers from Microsoft, IonQ, and Meta
• He concludes that these sources cluster around a 2-9 year window with especially high probability in the 4-5 year range, motivating his focus on 2027-2029 as a deadline for Bitcoin upgrades

Need for Bitcoin community decisions on upgrades and lost coins

Two major decisions Charles says Bitcoin must make[14:31]
• First, the community needs to agree on the technology to upgrade to quantum-proof encryption and wallet systems, likely moving 70-80% of the network relatively easily once chosen
• Second, they must decide what to do with the 20-30% of coins that are on very old addresses (e.g., Satoshi's coins, P2PK outputs, and lost coins) that cannot be moved by lost-key owners and will be taken by a quantum attacker with certainty
• He raises the question of whether to simply let those coins be stolen or to implement some code-based process to burn them before that happens

Debating the quantum timeline and industry incentives

Preston's pushback on timelines and incentive concerns

Possible bias among aggressive timeline forecasters[19:10]
• Preston notes that many people providing accelerated timelines have financial incentives to secure more funding for their labs or advance the quantum field, which could bias their forecasts
• He observes that real quantum experts are often deeply embedded in organizations that benefit from portraying progress as faster
IBM's roadmap as a counterexample[20:26]
• Preston references IBM as a front runner and says it is hard to find public claims of more than 24-28 logical qubits in current systems
• He notes that IBM has talked about having over 100,000 physical qubits by 2029 but is targeting only about 200 logical qubits by then, according to what he read on IBM's site
• He characterizes IBM as highly promotional, so he treats their 200 logical qubit projection by 2029 as likely a best-case scenario from their perspective

Charles' response: broader landscape and exponential trajectory

Many players beyond IBM and differing progress levels[22:51]
• Charles says there are about 10-12 pure-play public quantum companies, ~20 big tech firms with quantum teams (like Google and Amazon), and about 30 private companies, totaling around 60 firms working on quantum
• He emphasizes that while many are not very advanced, several leading firms are highly progressed, and those leaders are what matter for assessing risk
Specific company projections on logical qubits[23:01]
• Charles says IonQ is projecting about 8,000 logical qubits by 2029, more than needed to break Bitcoin
• He notes PsiQuantum, a private company, is projecting 1 million physical qubits by 2028, which he argues is well above what is needed to break Bitcoin
• He mentions QuEra projecting 100 logical qubits in 2026 and about 30 logical qubits this year, implying a tripling in a short span
• He cites OQC projecting 5,000 logical qubits in 2031
• He argues that extrapolating these linear-in-log-scale trends shows capability in the thousands of logical qubits between roughly 2028 and 2031, and only one firm needs to reach that point
China's role and geopolitical stakes[24:13]
• Charles claims China is spending about double what the U.S. spends on quantum and that a recent Chinese machine was reported to be a million times more powerful than Google's, emphasizing opaque progress there
• He notes around $55 billion is being committed globally to quantum and mentions rumors of a potential executive order by Donald Trump related to quantum due to its strategic importance
• He stresses that whoever achieves quantum supremacy first gains significant power in information warfare, including unlocking secrets and financial information
Exponential improvement and companies beating their own targets[25:09]
• Charles says leading firms have been beating their own qubit and error-rate forecasts in recent years rather than missing them
• He reiterates his view that the realistic range for breaking Bitcoin's encryption is about 2-8 years with high probability around 4-5 years

Interactions between quantum and AI

Using AI to accelerate quantum development

Rigetti's example of AI-assisted calibration[26:20]
• Charles recalls Rigetti announcing they used AI to significantly speed up optimizations in calibrating quantum machines
• He contrasts this with more manual, algorithm-driven but slower calibration methods used previously
Mutual reinforcement of AI and quantum[26:32]
• Charles says AI helps speed quantum development, and in turn quantum will later accelerate certain AI processes, making them interdependent technologies

Scaling entanglement and engineering uncertainties

Preston's question on stitching smaller quantum processors

Why you can't simply cluster small quantum units like classical CPUs[26:47]
• Preston asks if you could take, for example, 1,000 physical-qubit systems (yielding about 100 logical qubits each) and then stitch them together to build a larger quantum computer, similar to multi-core classical CPUs
• He says his understanding is that this doesn't work the same way because all qubits must be entangled for large-scale problems like cracking Bitcoin's encryption

Charles' high-level answer and focus on trends

Acknowledging engineering complexity but emphasizing empirical progress[28:13]
• Charles says he's not the right person for deep engineering details but notes that adding more qubits has been shown to improve scaling and reduce error rates in practice
• He compares critics focusing on quantum's current flaws to those who pointed out AI's limitations 5-6 years ago when outputs were poor and systems unreliable
• He cites McKinsey and BCG projecting multi-trillion-dollar economic value from quantum within 10 years and reiterates his expectation of Q-Day within that period, likely sooner

Bitcoin's cryptography, address types, and quantum exposure

Overview of Bitcoin address types and vulnerable supply

Early P2PK addresses and their risk[29:56]
• Preston explains that Bitcoin initially used pay-to-public-key (P2PK) addresses, which are the primary issue because they expose the public key directly on-chain
• He says his research suggests about 25% of existing Bitcoin sits in this vulnerable P2PK type, which can be targeted by Shor's algorithm once a sufficiently powerful quantum computer exists
Shift to P2PKH and improved privacy against quantum[30:26]
• Preston notes that from 2010 to 2017 Bitcoin largely moved to pay-to-public-key-hash (P2PKH), where the public key is not visible until a spend occurs
• He says about 75% of Bitcoin is in P2PKH or higher formats, providing some interim protection as long as those coins are not spent and the public keys remain unrevealed
• He stresses that this protection is only interim and conditional, not permanent

How Shor's algorithm targets exposed public keys

Public vs private keys under quantum attack[32:09]
• Charles reiterates that everyone with Bitcoin has a public address and a private key, and if a public key is known, a quantum machine can back-calculate the private key much faster than classical machines
• He notes that classical computers could theoretically brute-force keys, but it would take longer than the age of the universe, while quantum reduces that to practical timescales once qubit thresholds are reached
Exposed keys on exchanges and other entities[33:19]
• Charles points out that many exchanges have their public addresses known, making those wallets prime targets for quantum attackers if they do not migrate to quantum-safe schemes

Lost coins and inevitability of some quantum theft

Satoshi's coins and early lost wallets[34:00]
• Charles notes that Satoshi's coins and many early coins are widely believed to be lost or permanently dormant (e.g., due to lost hard drives and wallets)
• He says many of these early coins are in address formats that expose the public key, so a quantum machine will inevitably unlock them in the 2-8 year window he discussed
• He estimates roughly 20-30% of supply may be in such vulnerable or lost outputs, though the exact number is unknown

Migration logistics, BIP360, and blockspace constraints

Need for consensus and migration planning

Charles' aim: trigger "block wars for quantum"[34:48]
• Charles says his goal is not to dictate the specific solution (e.g., BIP360) but to get the community to start debating and reaching consensus on a quantum-safe upgrade
• He compares this to past block-size wars, calling for similar intensity but focused on quantum, due to the long lead times required for deployment
Throughput constraints for moving to new wallets[35:13]
• Charles notes that Bitcoin's transaction throughput is limited by 10-minute block times and block capacity, constraining how fast users can move funds to new addresses
• He estimates that if everyone with more than $100 in their wallet moved to a quantum-safe wallet and no other traffic existed, it could take around 30 days; including test transactions and organic traffic could extend this to 6 months
• He says this assumes a best-case scenario where everyone agrees and moves at once, which is unrealistic socially

Preston's recalculation including larger post-quantum signatures

Impact of 1-20 KB signatures vs 70-byte ECDSA[41:29]
• Preston says his earlier calculations suggest that migrating all addresses with over $100 of Bitcoin could take 10-30 months, not the 6-12 months Charles mentioned
• He explains that post-quantum signatures under BIP360 are much larger (often 1-20 KB) compared to today's ~70-byte signatures, drastically reducing how many can fit in each block
• He stresses that if everyone tries to migrate urgently, blockspace becomes the bottleneck, lengthening the required time window

Potential need to revisit block size

Block-size debate may need reopening[43:49]
• Charles acknowledges Preston's point and says larger signatures under BIP360 could well force reopening the block-size discussion to enable faster migration
• He notes that if migration truly took five years, it might be too late, hence the need to adjust protocol parameters if necessary

Social and governance challenges in Bitcoin's response

Difficulty reaching consensus and cultural resistance

Polarized reactions to quantum discussions[44:33]
• Charles says when he tweets about quantum he gets blasted by people with totally polar views and disagreements, showing how contentious the subject is
• Preston describes quantum as an inconvenient topic that people prefer to ignore, yet argues that is exactly why it deserves focused attention
Need for a central venue to coordinate a solution[45:43]
• Charles says it is not even clear where the community will converge to resolve this-right now it feels like a tornado of arguments without a central process to reach a decision
• He wants to see a solution agreed in 2026 so that there is at least a year to deploy by 2027, aligning with the earliest high-risk window he outlined

Charles' personal motivation and Bitcoin exposure

Years spent building in Bitcoin[47:50]
• Charles says he has spent the last eight years effectively living and breathing Bitcoin: building open-source on-chain valuation models, investing his time and energy, and being effectively leveraged long Bitcoin in his personal situation
• He emphasizes he wants Bitcoin to survive and that his alarm-raising comes from protecting something he is heavily invested in, not from being short or anti-Bitcoin

Lack of understanding, information opacity, and analogy to AI/Bitcoin adoption

Why many Bitcoiners dismiss quantum risks

Technical esoterica and repeated false alarms[48:29]
• Preston admits that even after significant research he does not fully understand how quantum works, and believes most people are in the same position, which contributes to dismissal
• He notes that quantum has long been used as a kind of canary in the coal mine that never materialized, so people roll their eyes when it's raised
Industry incentives and hidden logical-qubit data[48:29]
• Preston says many quantum firms post big physical qubit numbers but give little or no information on logical qubits and noise factors, making it hard to assess real progress
• He suggests this opacity plus fundraising incentives leads many observers not to take the space seriously

Analogy to early AI and early Bitcoin skepticism

AI's rapid inflection as a cautionary case[49:52]
• Preston notes that in 2021 many dismissed AI, yet four years later people are talking about AGI, underscoring how quickly capabilities can change
Bitcoin's early critics vs later adoption[51:28]
• Charles likens current quantum skepticism to how people viewed Bitcoin 5-10 years ago as a scam or tool for drugs, often based on superficial research
• He mentions how figures like Jamie Dimon and Ray Dalio initially dismissed Bitcoin, then later their institutions launched ETFs or recommended Bitcoin allocations
Importance of doing deeper work beyond headlines[52:02]
• Charles says many people Google for 10 minutes, find news that confirms their bias, and stop, but deeper analysis of annual reports and technical papers reveals logical-qubit trajectories and realistic risk
• He argues you don't have to be a quantum engineer to synthesize expert work and assess that the risk is real and near-term

Investing in quantum technologies and Bitcoin as a hedge

Current commercial use and revenue growth in quantum

Quantum access via major cloud providers[53:09]
• Charles says quantum computers are already available on major cloud platforms like Google Cloud, Microsoft Azure, and AWS, where people can rent access
• He acknowledges there are stability and other issues, but notes real companies are using quantum today for specific problems
Revenue growth despite early-stage limitations[52:33]
• Charles says revenues at quantum firms are generally growing 50-100% per year, contradicting the notion of zero utility
• He lists current use cases in drug discovery and financial optimizations as examples of value being generated

Quantum security industry and Bitcoin's unique vulnerability

Traditional finance moving to quantum-resistant schemes[51:45]
• Charles describes a whole sector around quantum security, including consulting and technology to roll out quantum-proof encryption across asset classes
• He notes traditional banks and institutions are mostly already quantum-proof or in the process of upgrading, and many also use 2FA, which is harder to brute-force with quantum due to limited attempts
Why Bitcoin is a top target[52:09]
• Charles argues Bitcoin is the number one asset on the chopping block: it has weaker ECC than RSA, is highly valuable, publicly transparent, and lacks centralized rollback mechanisms
• He says centralized financial networks can, in principle, roll back or correct incidents, whereas Bitcoin's philosophy rejects such rollbacks, raising the stakes

Valuation of quantum firms vs future capabilities and Q-Day

Why current revenues aren't the right yardstick[52:24]
• Charles concedes that current revenues are small and do not justify valuations on a traditional multiple basis, but says valuing them only on present revenue would have also implied AI was worth zero five years ago
• He argues investors must look at the trajectory of qubits, error rates, and the range of problems quantum will be able to solve in the near future, including the potential to break existing cryptography
Q-Day and unlocking value (including illicitly)[53:28]
• Charles speculates that if a quantum firm or state actor took 100 billion worth of Satoshi's coins, it would more than fund global quantum development over the past decade, highlighting the financial stakes
• He notes such an act might not be undertaken by a U.S. firm but suggests other countries might be less constrained, underscoring the geopolitical dimension

Competition between big tech and smaller quantum companies

Capital advantages of firms like Microsoft[53:40]
• Preston mentions Microsoft's Majorana One topological qubit processor and its CEO's claim that Microsoft could have a million-qubit processor around 2027, noting the massive R&D budgets they can deploy
Information flows and IP moats in today's world[54:17]
• Charles observes that the modern world is less siloed, making it harder to conceal information and easier for competitors to leverage others' work, which may accelerate the whole field
• He says different companies are pursuing very different technical approaches, some of which will fail, so it is difficult to pick single winners in advance

NVIDIA and Jensen Huang's rapid change in stance on quantum

Timeline of NVIDIA's messaging in 2024[54:57]
• Charles notes that Jensen Huang said in January that quantum was 15-30 years away, then in March said he was wrong about the timeline, then in June said we're at an inflection point, and later announced billions in quantum investments
• Preston displays a slide showing this rapid progression in statements over just a few months to illustrate how quickly major players can revise their expectations

Charles' portfolio stance and quantum ETF initiative

Maintaining a large Bitcoin position while hedging

Charles is still net long Bitcoin[56:31]
• Charles clarifies that he holds more Bitcoin than quantum exposure and expects Bitcoin to go higher in the near term, provided the quantum risk is addressed
• He states he cannot ignore the risk any longer and thus wants a quantum hedge alongside his Bitcoin holdings

Creating a diversified quantum index and planned ETF

Index of quantum assets[56:55]
• Charles says his team has built an index of pure-play quantum companies and published it on their website
Work on a U.S.-listed quantum ETF[57:05]
• He adds that they are working toward launching a U.S.-listed quantum ETF to provide a diversified way to gain exposure to the sector

Closing thoughts and call to action for the Bitcoin community

Importance of scrutinizing BIP360 and alternatives

Need for more rigorous review of proposed solutions[56:39]
• Preston says BIP360 is already available and argues it has been neglected in terms of rigor and attention from the community
• He urges people to scrutinize BIP360, debate it, and either improve it or develop a better alternative to implement

Final emphasis on urgency and consensus

Acting before it's too late[58:01]
• Charles reiterates that the community must talk about quantum risks now, critique codes and proposals, and converge on a solution as soon as possible
• He repeats that agreements need to be reached in the next 12 months or so to allow enough time for rollout before high-probability quantum attack windows open
Mutual appreciation and episode close[58:01]
• Preston thanks Charles for coming on and says he enjoyed the discussion and that it had been too long since the last appearance
• Charles says he enjoyed it as well and appreciates the opportunity to raise these issues

Lessons Learned

Actionable insights and wisdom you can apply to your business, career, and personal life.

1

Exponential technologies often look insignificant for a long time and then suddenly become transformative, so relying on linear intuition or today's limitations can leave you unprepared for rapid shifts.

Reflection Questions:

  • • Where in your current work or investments might you be assuming linear progress when the underlying technology could be improving exponentially?
  • • How could you track leading indicators (not just headlines) to detect when a slowly developing technology is approaching an inflection point?
  • • What is one area where you should revisit your assumptions about future capabilities in light of how quickly AI and quantum are progressing?
2

When assessing risks from complex technologies, you don't need to be an engineer-you need to synthesize credible expert work, focus on key metrics, and build scenarios rather than dismissing what you don't fully understand.

Reflection Questions:

  • • What important topic have you been dismissing because it feels too technical or abstract to dig into properly?
  • • How could you identify a small set of trusted experts or primary sources to help you form a grounded view on that topic?
  • • What is one concrete step you can take this month to move from vague concern to informed risk assessment in an area that matters to you?
3

System-wide upgrades in decentralized networks are constrained not just by technology but by social coordination and throughput limits, so timelines must include consensus-building and migration, not just engineering milestones.

Reflection Questions:

  • • Where in your organization or projects are you underestimating the time it will take to get people aligned, not just the time to build the solution?
  • • How might you design your plans to allow for staged migration, testing, and communication rather than assuming everyone will switch instantly?
  • • What governance or coordination mechanisms could you put in place now to make future upgrades smoother and faster?
4

Hedging against low-probability but high-impact risks is rational when your core exposure is large, even if the risk timelines are uncertain.

Reflection Questions:

  • • In which parts of your financial or professional life are you heavily concentrated in a single bet or thesis?
  • • How could you construct a simple, diversified hedge that would soften the impact if your main thesis is wrong or disrupted sooner than expected?
  • • What is one practical hedge you could add or adjust in your portfolio or career strategy within the next quarter?
5

Difficult, inconvenient topics often signal where attention is most needed; ignoring them because they are contentious or uncomfortable can create much larger problems later.

Reflection Questions:

  • • What important but uncomfortable risk or topic do you find yourself avoiding in your work, finances, or relationships?
  • • How might having a structured, fact-based discussion about that issue change the decisions you're making today?
  • • What is one concrete conversation, memo, or analysis you could initiate this week to bring more light and clarity to that uncomfortable area?

Episode Summary - Notes by Quinn

BTC253: Quantum Computing and Bitcoin w/ Charles Edwards (Bitcoin Podcast)
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