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We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network

BTC252: Bitcoin Mastermind Q3 2025 w/ Joe Carlasare, Jeff Ross, and American HODL (Bitcoin Podcast)

with Jeff Ross, American Hodl, Joe Carlisari

Published October 22, 2025
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About This Episode

Preston Pysh hosts a quarterly Bitcoin mastermind with Jeff Ross, American Hodl, and Joe Carlisari focused on current Bitcoin sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and how hard assets like gold and Bitcoin fit into the evolving global landscape. They argue the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle is breaking down, discuss golds recent outperformance versus both stocks and Bitcoin, and explore implications of liquidity trends, Fed policy, and a potential long period of hard-asset outperformance. The conversation also covers the US strategic Bitcoin reserve, AI and robotics as economic forces, the state of Bitcoin treasury companies and miners, and rising geopolitical tensions with China and the BRICS bloc.

Topics Covered

Crypto Investing Inflation Stock market valuation Artificial intelligence Robotics Manufacturing in USA U.S.-China competition U.S. politics and elections Gold investing

Disclaimer: We provide independent summaries of podcasts and are not affiliated with or endorsed in any way by any podcast or creator. All podcast names and content are the property of their respective owners. The views and opinions expressed within the podcasts belong solely to the original hosts and guests and do not reflect the views or positions of Summapod.

Quick Takeaways

  • Sentiment in the Bitcoin community is unusually depressed given that Bitcoin is still up strongly over 12 months, largely because price action has been choppy and failed to produce the explosive post-halving bull run many expected.
  • Jeff Ross argues that the classic four-year Bitcoin cycle tied to halvings is effectively dead, with Bitcoin now tracking global liquidity and the business cycle more than a simple calendar pattern.
  • A century-long chart of the S&P 500 priced in gold suggests the US has hit another peak era of financialization similar to 1929, 1967, and 2000, implying a long period where hard assets like gold (and potentially Bitcoin) may outperform US stocks.
  • In 2025 Bitcoin has significantly underperformed gold in gold terms, with gold having a strong year and even traditional institutions framing both gold and Bitcoin as debasement trades.
  • The panel expects the Federal Reserve to end quantitative tightening and cut rates further, noting persistent yield-curve inversion and Powell signaling concern about tightening liquidity.
  • AI and data center buildouts are driving massive capital expenditure by large tech firms, boosting certain miners through their energy contracts while also raising long-term questions about employment and capitalism in an AI-heavy economy.
  • US policy toward a strategic Bitcoin reserve is viewed as symbolically important but not yet a legislative priority, with most near-term accumulation likely coming from seized Bitcoin that is finally forfeited to the government.
  • Bitcoin treasury companies have largely disappointed, effectively trading like Bitcoin penny stocks when the underlying price goes sideways, while many Bitcoin miners have rallied sharply due to AI-related demand for power and infrastructure.
  • The guests are still structurally bullish on Bitcoin through 2026 and beyond, with some projecting the possibility of very high six-figure prices if the macro environment and liquidity remain supportive.
  • They close by noting rising geopolitical risk, including potential conflict over Taiwan and shifts in US focus toward the Western Hemisphere, as another driver of demand for neutral or hard monetary assets.

Podcast Notes

Introduction and current Bitcoin sentiment

Show setup and participants

Preston introduces the quarterly Bitcoin mastermind episode[0:06]
• He notes these quarterly masterminds are among their most popular episodes and focus on macro trends, market structure, policy moves, and investor sentiment in Bitcoin
Guests on this episode[0:13]
• Preston is joined by Jeff Ross, American Hodl, and Joe Carlisari for the discussion

Initial sentiment check

Bitcoin Twitter mood is very negative[1:33]
• Joe describes scanning Bitcoin Twitter as a "cesspool" where many are depressed and saying Bitcoin "sucks" and talking about moving into gold
Expectations from the four-year cycle have been shattered[1:53]
• American Hodl says people expected a massive pump over the last nine months based on the usual four-year cycle pattern, but instead price has been mostly sideways in 2025
• He admits he is personally frustrated with the lack of strong upside action
Hodling feels unrewarded relative to past cycles[2:15]
• American Hodl notes that in inflation-adjusted terms Bitcoin is not much higher than the 2021 top and did not go far above the prior all-time high this cycle
• He recalls how painful it was after the FTX collapse and how everyone expected 2-3x above the prior ATH afterward, which has not materialized
• He says this does not feel like the kind of Bitcoin bull market he is used to, despite a rally from 15K to over 100K
• He jokes that he is addicted to the dopamine of big Bitcoin pumps and feels antsy for another major move

Perspective on recent returns

Jeff points out Bitcoin is still up strongly over 12 months[4:05]
• Jeff mentions Bitcoin is up about 67 percent over the last 12 months, which is a very good return for "normal people" even if Bitcoiners find it disappointing
• He contrasts that with returns from a stock like Walmart to emphasize how spoiled Bitcoin investors can be

Macro cycle, manufacturing, and death of the four-year Bitcoin cycle

Manufacturing recession and Bitcoin-liguidity link

Jeff on US manufacturing stagnation[4:22]
• Jeff notes the US manufacturing sector, as measured by ISM, has been in a recession since 2022, about three years now
• He has repeatedly expected ISM to "take off" any month and is surprised it still hovers around or just below 50
Bitcoin tracks liquidity and the business cycle more than halvings[5:15]
• Jeff says Bitcoin price ramps based on global M2 or liquidity and, for some reason, on ISM manufacturing, not on the halving schedule itself
• He calls the idea that the halving alone drives the cycle "nonsense" and insists business and liquidity cycles are the real drivers
Outlook for 2026 and rejection of four-year cycle[5:44]
• Jeff still expects ISM and the broader economy to move higher over the next 9-12 months, and believes Bitcoin's best days are ahead as liquidity rises
• He explicitly says he thinks the four-year cycle is dead and many people will mis-time the market by bailing in December, only to re-enter at much higher prices later
• He had previously predicted a 75K peak in Q4 2025 and admits he was wrong while Joe, who expected a gradual creep to about 130K, has been closer to reality

Joe on calendar obsession and upcoming catalysts

Joe expects continued upside beyond the halving window[6:33]
• Joe is optimistic about 2026 and does not understand why investors are "glued to the calendar" as if Bitcoin must crash at a certain date like Cinderella at midnight
• He expects rates to drop, which would help manufacturing and Bitcoin, and coins the phrase that November could be "up-vember" once current political issues like a government shutdown and Xi-Trump summit are resolved

Challenging sacred macro narratives

Yield curve recession signal questioned[7:40]
• Preston notes that several supposedly ironclad macro signals, like the idea that yield curve inversion always triggers a huge recession, are being challenged in this cycle
• He suggests that when such "sacred cows" are slaughtered, it frees investors to think more clearly instead of relying on old rules of thumb

S&P 500 priced in gold and the hard-asset thesis

Explanation of the long-term S&P-to-gold chart

Jeff presents a 100-plus-year chart of S&P 500 priced in gold[8:31]
• The chart runs back to 1919 and shows peaks (in red) and troughs (in green) in the S&P 500 divided by gold ratio
• Jeff interprets peaks as periods when investors believe US dollar assets are superior to gold and pour capital into US stocks and bonds
• He identifies major peaks at 1929, 1967, the dot-com bubble around 2000, and another inflection at the end of 2021 or early 2022
Analogy to late 1960s and 1970s[10:09]
• Jeff compares the current environment to the early 1970s when US allies demanded gold instead of dollars, believing the US would devalue its currency to finance the Vietnam War and debt
• He notes that from the 1967 peak to the 1980 trough, the S&P 500 priced in gold fell about 95 percent, highlighting how brutal these regime shifts can be
• Jeff argues that at the 2021 peak, the world similarly realized the US was over-debasing after COVID stimulus and began shifting back toward gold and hard assets
Concern for US retirement savers[13:05]
• Jeff worries that most Americans have 401(k)s and IRAs concentrated in US stocks and bonds and could be wiped out in real terms over the next decade if the S&P-to-gold ratio collapses again
• He urges people not to price their life and wealth only in dollars, referencing how 1970s equity investors thought they were fine nominally but lost huge purchasing power after inflation

Bitcoin vs gold performance and narratives

Golds strong year versus Bitcoin[15:36]
• Preston shows a chart of Bitcoin priced in gold and notes that since 2021 it looks depressing: Bitcoin is down around 37 percent in gold terms year-to-date at the time of the discussion
• American Hodl concedes that gold has been "kicking our ass" this year and says gold bugs are having a good year after being bullied by Bitcoiners for 15 years
Institutional framing of gold and Bitcoin as debasement trades[17:24]
• The group mentions JP Morgan calling gold and Bitcoin the "debasement trade", which they see as traditional finance finally adopting a view Bitcoiners have held for a long time
• American Hodl says it feels strange to be on the same side as Jamie Dimon after years of antagonism between Bitcoiners and JP Morgan
Why gold may be outperforming now[18:12]
• Preston suggests that many Wall Street veterans understand gold better than Bitcoin and are choosing gold as a simpler hedge against debasement and credit-market problems
• American Hodl adds that many of these investors lived through the 1970s and see current conditions as a replay, making gold a natural choice
• Jeff argues that central banks, especially in the BRICS bloc, are accumulating gold because they no longer see US Treasuries as a neutral reserve asset

Gold, BRICS, and potential for Bitcoin as a future reserve asset

Shift away from Treasuries to gold[20:02]
• Jeff notes China stopped buying Treasuries around 2014 and has let them roll off, and he believes half the world no longer trusts Treasuries as neutral
• He says the BRICS nations are moving on from Treasuries and need a different reserve asset, which for now is primarily gold
Timeline for central banks buying Bitcoin[20:14]
• Jeff believes Bitcoin is currently too small for central banks but could be accumulated in size by central banks in the late 2030s or around 2040
• He reiterates that if forced to pick only S&P 500 or gold for the next 5-10 years, he would emphatically choose gold

Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) and US policy

Status of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve

Legislative outlook and priorities in Washington[32:26]
• Preston asks why momentum around the SBR seems to have faded and notes that focus in DC has shifted to market-structure clarity before the SBR
• Joe says getting any bill through Congress is difficult and he never saw an SBR law as base case, calling it more of a tail event
• He highlights that crypto lobbying groups are prioritizing regulatory clarity over an SBR since that aligns more directly with their interests
Symbolic importance of SBR language[33:45]
• Joe emphasizes that it is already a huge step that the US has articulated a strategic necessity for holding Bitcoin, even before any significant accumulation
• He explains that internal confusion remains about how far to push, including whether to use tools like the Exchange Stabilization Act to acquire more Bitcoin

Seized Bitcoin and forfeiture process

Source and status of seized coins[34:50]
• Joe notes news of about 14 billion dollars worth of recently seized Bitcoin and explains that seized assets are not automatically government property
• He details that courts must order forfeiture, and victims may have claims on the assets for restitution before coins become government property suitable for the SBR
Pig-butchering scams and confiscations[36:11]
• American Hodl explains pig-butchering scams: scammers send wrong-number texts, build relationships, then lure victims into fake investment platforms before stealing large sums in one move
• He says these scams target everyday Americans via random texts and even sophisticated people like a Yale-educated attorney who reportedly lost 5 million dollars
• He notes that a major pig-butchering operation in Cambodia, which victimized US citizens, appears to be tied to significant Bitcoin seizures now potentially feeding the SBR

Why Bitcoin needs a strong bull run for policy durability

Vulnerability of the SBR to political change[39:40]
• Joe points out an executive order can be reversed by the next administration, so a future president hostile to Bitcoin could undo the SBR with a stroke of a pen
• He argues that a strong Bitcoin bull run into 2026, with institutional adoption and reduced drawdowns, would change how policymakers perceive Bitcoin and increase pressure to codify the SBR in law
• He also notes that central bank buying is likely a key driver of golds current price action and suggests the US should similarly adopt Bitcoin as a strategic hedge asset

Fed policy, liquidity, SOFR spikes, and the yield curve

SOFR spikes and comparisons to 2019 repo stress

Preston raises concern about SOFR vs Fed funds rate[44:05]
• Preston points to spikes in the SOFR rate relative to the effective federal funds rate, noting this pattern has historically preceded liquidity issues like those in 2019
Jeff interprets Powell's comments as QT nearing an end[44:46]
• Jeff references Powell's recent NABE speech where Powell hinted that bank reserves are still ample but approaching critical levels, implying QT may soon stop
• Jeff reads this as Powell trying to avoid a repeat of the 2019 repo flare-up by preemptively responding to liquidity stress

Yield curve inversion and rate cuts

Jeff advocates cutting Fed funds to follow the two-year yield[49:04]
• Jeff notes the yield curve has been inverted for about three years and says the two-year yield, around 3.41 percent, is telling the Fed to cut the Fed funds rate by roughly 100 basis points
• He argues it is simple for the Fed to "un-invert" the curve by lowering the overnight rate below the two-year, restoring normality across maturities
Joe notes market expectations for cuts and questions about independence[49:22]
• Joe says markets are pricing in about 75 basis points of cuts by year-end and that Fed officials have talked about a lower neutral rate
• He observes that recent experience disproved fears that cutting would cause long-term yields to spike uncontrollably, since cuts coincided with 10-year yields falling below 4 percent
• He questions how independent the Fed really is, suggesting under future administrations the chair may simply call the president for direction on rates

Powell's future role at the Fed

Chair term vs board term[50:06]
• Joe explains that Powell's chair term ends in May but his term as a Fed governor runs until January 2028
• He notes that historically former chairs usually resign from the board when their chair term ends, but Powell's dislike of Trump might make him stay to oppose certain policies

AI, data centers, robots, and the future of work and prices

AI boom, capital expenditure, and economic impact

Joe on AI buildout as major economic story[52:51]
• Joe cites McKinsey estimating 6-7 trillion dollars of AI-related CapEx by 2030 and Goldman Sachs projecting over 1 trillion just from the "Mag 7" tech companies
• He lists data centers, accelerators, networking, real estate, and power grid upgrades as key areas of spending, largely from cash-rich balance sheets
• He argues this explains the extraordinary performance of major tech stocks and sees them as owning the future infrastructure in a way that garage startups cannot match
Short-term jobs boost vs long-term displacement[54:30]
• Joe expects AI buildout to create many skilled jobs over the next five years, delaying mass unemployment concerns to the 2030s
• He argues that AI tools currently often increase low-quality output (like sloppy legal filings) and that those who keep thinking critically and use AI as a supplement will be especially valuable

Jeff's concern about capitalism in an AI world

Questioning free-market capitalism when competing with superintelligent AI[54:44]
• Jeff calls himself a hardcore free-market capitalist but wonders if free-market competition is desirable when humans must compete with entities that could be 10x or 100x smarter and more capable
• He provocatively asks whether society really wants to be in direct free-market competition with AI if unemployment were to jump to 40 percent

American Hodl's view on AI capability and usage

Skepticism on near-term superintelligence[55:40]
• American Hodl thinks talk of near-term artificial general intelligence or superintelligence is often driven by regulatory-capture motives for major players
• He says GPT-5 underwhelmed him and sees a plateau, though he acknowledges possible nerfing and Chinese attempts to steal model weights
AI as a tool in human competition[56:29]
• He compares AI to a handgun: a tool humans will use against other humans with AI, envisioning a world where his AI battles another persons AI rather than pure human vs machine conflict
• He proposes that much of the internet could become a battlefield of bots, with humans operating behind AI systems rather than directly

Robotics, Tesla Optimus, and real-world AI

Potential of humanoid robots and household automation[1:02:00]
• Preston asks about the implications of Tesla-style humanoid robots, mentioning projections of perhaps a million robots by 2030 and their impact on augmented labor
• American Hodl says if Elon gets robots even somewhat right, it could make him the worlds first trillionaire and that Tesla has a lead in real-world AI
• He describes the leap in Teslas Full Self Driving from version 11 to 12 after moving to neural network training, likening the improvement to going from a "janky robot" driver to an occasionally dangerous teenage driver
Examples of AI-enabled services and deflationary impact[1:03:46]
• Preston imagines a Spotify-like platform for recipes from great chefs combined with robotic kitchen arms that cook those meals at home
• The group notes that such technologies would likely crater prices for many services like dining out by dramatically boosting productivity

AI, inflation, and unit of account distinctions

Disinflation from technology vs fiat expansion[1:04:45]
• Joe argues that a massive productivity boom from AI and robotics will push prices down, making persistent double-digit CPI inflation unlikely absent other factors like UBI
• Jeff suggests there may be a short-term inflation spike as AI and onshoring buildouts are financed with unsound money, but expects long-term disinflation thereafter
Preston distinguishes fiat vs Bitcoin terms[1:07:01]
• Preston stresses that M2 growth implies prices of desirable things can keep rising in fiat terms even as they fall in Bitcoin terms

Bitcoin treasury companies, miners, and AI energy demand

Performance of Bitcoin treasury companies

American Hodl admits being wrong on treasury-company bull case[1:09:09]
• He previously expected a Bitcoin treasury-company bubble but now calls them "Bitcoin penny stocks" after their market NAVs collapsed
• He notes specific vehicles trading below issue prices and says most have performed poorly, while MicroStrategy remains the standout
Preston explains the structural challenge when Bitcoin goes sideways[1:10:33]
• Preston outlines that the treasury-company model depends on Bitcoin rising roughly 40 percent annually while they issue liabilities at around 10 percent, capturing the spread to grow their holdings
• If Bitcoin trades sideways, they risk becoming overlevered and cannot continue securitizing their balance-sheet Bitcoin, leaving them stuck and unattractive

Miners and AI-driven energy contracts

Miners outperforming due to AI-related demand[1:12:25]
• Preston notes that Bitcoin miners in his portfolio have done extremely well, with one up dramatically, and Joe attributes much of this to AI trends rather than pure Bitcoin dynamics
• American Hodl explains that miners secured many key energy contracts first and AI firms must now partner with them, making miners "energy pirates" who benefit from the AI boom
• Jeff says he stopped out of positions in many treasury companies due to poor performance, while miners, contrary to earlier expectations, caught a strong bid

Bitcoin price outlook, sentiment, and four-year cycle debate

Impact of four-year-cycle believers and OG selling

American Hodl on cycle psychology and large holders[1:14:21]
• Hodl believes many large early holders with tens of thousands of coins still trade based on the four-year cycle and are selling into current levels, citing examples of 80,000 and 30,000 BTC sales
• He observes that price chopping around 100K is prompting some long-time holders to finally spend on cars and houses, contributing to supply

Joe on sentiment, lack of blow-off top, and steady bid

No classic euphoria yet[1:16:25]
• Joe argues there has been no true bull market blow-off in this cycle: year-to-date returns are modest, retail has not rushed in, and there is little irrational exuberance
• He notes people treat an impending bear market as an immutable law, but given the lack of a real mania there is no obvious reason Bitcoin must crash soon
Steady institutional demand around 100K[1:17:55]
• Joe points to a strong base of bids around 100K, with each dip quickly bought, suggesting a steady institutional bid rather than tourist speculation
• He highlights that ETFs make it extremely easy to allocate to Bitcoin, unlike the physical queues forming to buy gold in places like Australia

Price targets into 2026

End-of-year 2025 targets around 130K[1:19:08]
• Joe reiterates his long-standing 130K target for end of the year and American Hodl jokingly "prices right" him with a 129K call, while Preston goes slightly higher at 131K
Jeffs extended high-end targets if macro booms[1:19:21]
• Jeff acknowledges being far off with his prior 475K target for this year but says if the economic boom he expects extends into mid-2026, Bitcoin could reach 550K-600K within that timeframe
• He sees a scenario where the Trump administration runs the economy hot through the midterms, then even hotter afterward, supporting very high Bitcoin prices

Geopolitics, oil, and changing global order

Oil price weakness and global demand

Observations on oil below 2004 levels[1:20:56]
• Joe notes oil is cheaper than in 2004 despite years of money printing and that it failed to sustain moves above 100 dollars despite many bullish calls
• Jeff interprets low oil prices as a sign of global economic weakness, suggesting demand will revive if economies pick up, which would then lift oil

Prospect of conflict with China and regional shifts

Military expectations around Taiwan[1:23:35]
• Jeff says people he talks to in the military view a conflict over Taiwan as almost inevitable and are actively training for it
• Preston, with a military background, says logistics and control over supply chains of complex machinery inputs are key to any sustained conflict in Asia
US focus on Western Hemisphere resources[1:25:05]
• Jeff observes a sudden increase in US interest in the Caribbean and South America, pointing to Venezuelas vast oil deposits and discussions of coups and CIA activity there
• He also notes US enthusiasm for Argentina and support for Milei, suggesting the US may be ceding parts of the Middle East and pivoting to the Western Hemisphere as its new strategic resource base
• He believes the geopolitical order is changing rapidly and expects the next five years to be very turbulent

Closing remarks and where to find the guests

Guest contact info and social media

Joe Carlisari[1:27:31]
• Joe shares that he can be found on Twitter and that he practices at Amundsen Davis, a full-service law firm with a substantial Bitcoin-miner client base and regulatory and litigation work
Jeff Ross[1:28:13]
• Jeff says he is trying to avoid social media and may return only for future quarterly masterminds
American Hodl[1:28:54]
• American Hodl says he is currently only on Nostr, not out of ideological purity but because he lost his phone with his Twitter login; he mentions making video blogs posted exclusively on Nostr

Preston's closing

Preston thanks the group and notes audience reception[1:29:36]
• Preston says he genuinely looks forward to this mastermind every quarter, thanks the guests for their time, and notes the episodes consistently receive strong listener feedback

Lessons Learned

Actionable insights and wisdom you can apply to your business, career, and personal life.

1

Relying on simplistic calendar-based frameworks like a rigid four-year Bitcoin cycle can blind you to the real drivers of markets, which are liquidity, the business cycle, and shifting macro conditions.

Reflection Questions:

  • • Where in your investing or career decisions are you leaning on oversimplified rules of thumb instead of understanding the underlying drivers?
  • • How could you track a small set of real-world indicators (like liquidity or industry demand) that actually move the outcomes you care about?
  • • What is one belief about timing or cycles you could re-examine this month by looking at longer-term data rather than anecdotes?
2

Thinking in real terms instead of nominal terms-pricing wealth against hard benchmarks like gold or Bitcoin, not just your local currency-changes how you perceive risk, return, and the true preservation of purchasing power.

Reflection Questions:

  • • If you measured your net worth against a hard asset instead of your home currency, how different would your performance look over the last five years?
  • • How might your asset allocation change if your primary goal was preserving purchasing power rather than just seeing a higher nominal account balance?
  • • What simple metric or chart could you start tracking quarterly to gauge your real, inflation-adjusted progress instead of only looking at dollar figures?
3

AI and automation are leverage multipliers, not automatic replacements; the people who remain curious and use AI as a supplement to their own thinking will outcompete both those who ignore it and those who outsource all judgment to it.

Reflection Questions:

  • • In your current work, which repetitive or research-heavy tasks could you experiment with augmenting using AI over the next month?
  • • How can you design a personal workflow where AI helps you generate options and drafts, but you remain firmly in charge of the final judgment?
  • • What skill could you deepen this year so that AI makes you dramatically more effective at it rather than gradually obsolete?
4

Structural shifts-like a decade-long rotation from financialized assets into hard assets, or a geopolitical pivot between regions-tend to unfold slowly but can dominate returns for many years if you position early and patiently.

Reflection Questions:

  • • Which long-term structural trends (in energy, demographics, technology, or geopolitics) do you believe are underpriced by most people you talk to?
  • • How could you build a small, diversified exposure to those themes without overbetting or needing to time every short-term move?
  • • What would it look like to review your portfolio once a year specifically through the lens of "am I aligned with where the world is going, not where it has been?"
5

Policy environments and institutional behavior can change quickly, but legal structures and strategic positions (like sovereign reserves or energy contracts) that you establish in advance are much harder to reverse and can become enduring advantages.

Reflection Questions:

  • • Where in your business or personal finances could you make a one-time structural decision (a contract, legal setup, or governance choice) that strengthens your position regardless of short-term politics?
  • • How might you take advantage of the current regulatory or macro environment to secure resources or optionality that will be difficult or costly to obtain later?
  • • What is one long-lived asset or relationship you could start building this year that future you will be grateful to have in place when conditions inevitably change?

Episode Summary - Notes by Sage

BTC252: Bitcoin Mastermind Q3 2025 w/ Joe Carlasare, Jeff Ross, and American HODL (Bitcoin Podcast)
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