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TED Talks Daily

The best thing that could happen to the energy industry | Matt Tilleard

with Matt Tilleard

Published October 8, 2025
View Show Notes

About This Episode

Host Elise Hu introduces a talk by renewable entrepreneur Matt Tilleard, who argues that the current clean energy shift is fundamentally different from past energy transitions because it is driven by technology instead of fuel. He explains how renewable technologies are less existential, more recyclable, more substitutable, and based on abundant materials, making control of resources and cartels far less powerful than in the fossil-fuel era. Using examples from his work in Africa and a case study in Madagascar, he outlines why the future of energy is likely to be more distributed, shared, and shaped by innovation and manufacturing rather than by those who control fuel deposits.

Topics Covered

Renewable energy and decarbonization Energy policy and regulation Climate change Entrepreneurship Economic development International trade Sustainability Systems thinking

Disclaimer: We provide independent summaries of podcasts and are not affiliated with or endorsed in any way by any podcast or creator. All podcast names and content are the property of their respective owners. The views and opinions expressed within the podcasts belong solely to the original hosts and guests and do not reflect the views or positions of Summapod.

Quick Takeaways

  • Matt Tilleard argues that the current energy transition is the first to move from fuel to technology, fundamentally changing who can exercise power over energy.
  • In a technology-based energy system, existing equipment continues working without constant new fuel, making supply less existential and demand more elastic.
  • Renewable energy technologies are highly recyclable, and by 2050 recycled materials could significantly reduce the need for new critical mineral extraction.
  • Key transition materials like copper, lithium, graphite, cobalt, and rare earths are geologically abundant, and many can be substituted with other materials when prices spike.
  • Historical attempts to form cartels around energy-transition minerals, such as multiple copper cartels, have failed because abundant supply and elastic demand undermine control.
  • Tilleard contends there will be no OPEC-equivalent for renewables and no 'Saudi Arabia' of clean energy manufacturing in the same sense as oil.
  • He emphasizes that future national advantage will depend less on controlling resources and more on comparative advantage in inventing, building, and manufacturing clean technologies.
  • His work with CrossBoundary in Africa illustrates how distributed solar, wind, and batteries can replace heavy fuel oil generators and provide cheaper, cleaner, and more reliable power.

Podcast Notes

Show introduction and host framing

Host introduces TED Talks Daily and the episode

Elise Hu describes TED Talks Daily as bringing new ideas to spark curiosity every day[2:42]
She identifies herself as the host, Elise Hu[2:50]

Summary of Matt Tilleard's talk

Elise says a clean energy era is here and will be an age of radical abundance, according to renewable entrepreneur Matt Tilleard[2:54]
She explains that Tilleard argues it's time to retire the narrative of energy as a zero-sum game[3:00]
Elise notes that his talk shows how the renewable revolution is shifting power from those who hoard fuel to those who innovate and deploy technology[3:07]
She frames the talk as explaining why this shift is the best thing that could happen to the energy industry[3:16]

Fuel-based history of power and the 'fuel-tinted glasses' metaphor

World built on fuel and historical power dynamics

Tilleard opens by stating that our modern world was built on fuel[3:16]
He says history has been determined by who finds, who controls, and who burns the dominant fuel of the age[3:24]
He claims the past makes sense when viewed through what he calls 'fuel tinted glasses'[3:32]

Fuel-tinted glasses as metaphor and 'safety equipment'

Tilleard jokes that fuel-tinted glasses are not just a fashion accessory for a festival but are essential safety equipment for leaders shaping history[3:38]
• He explicitly references 'this year's fire festival' in the joke about the glasses as a fashion accessory

1970s OPEC oil embargo and leaders' formative experiences

Tilleard recalls that in the 1970s, the oil cartel OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, tried to cut off the supply of oil to the United States[3:53]
He says this caused instant panic and a recession within months[3:59]
He notes that Donald Trump was 27 when lines of cars snaked around the block for fuel[4:04]
He adds that Vladimir Putin was 21 and Xi (G) was 20 at that time[4:11]
He concludes that leaders understand 'in their bones' that power comes from fuel[4:17]

The next energy transition framed as a shift to technology, not fuel

Question of who will control the future of clean energy

Tilleard states that we are now in the midst of the next great energy transition[4:23]
He asks who will control the future of clean energy and who will be the 'Saudi Arabia' of this transition[4:29]
Through 'fuel tinted glasses', he says the answer seems to be whoever controls critical minerals like copper, lithium, graphite, cobalt, and rare earths[4:41]

Why fuel-tinted glasses are 'broken' in this transition

Tilleard argues that fuel-tinted glasses are broken because this is the first transition not to another dominant fuel but to a technology[4:53]
He asserts that shifting to technology 'changes everything' about how power works in energy[4:59]

Tilleard's work in Africa and perspective on the transition

He says he has spent a lot of time thinking about what this shift to technology means[4:59]
He describes his team as building one of the largest distributed renewable energy utilities for Africa[5:12]
Tilleard explains that CrossBoundary Energy uses on-site solar, batteries, and wind to provide cheaper, cleaner, and more reliable power to businesses[5:17]
He adds that CrossBoundary Access uses the same technologies to bring first-time power to some of the 600 million people on the continent who currently live without electricity[5:27]
He introduces his main claim: at the 'silicon face' of this transition, technology is less existential, more circular, more fungible, and more abundant than fuel[5:38]

Case study: Talagnaro, Madagascar and the shift from fuel to a renewable microgrid

Description of Talagnaro and its previous fuel-based power system

Tilleard introduces Talagnaro in Madagascar as an example project[5:52]
He describes Talagnaro as a remote town of 55,000 people located next to a major critical minerals mine[5:57]
He says that power for the mine and the community previously came from heavy fuel oil generators on the mine site[6:04]

Deployment of a renewable microgrid in Talagnaro

Tilleard explains that CrossBoundary now powers the mine with a renewable energy microgrid made up of solar, wind, and batteries[6:15]
He says they hope soon to be able to phase out the heavy fuel oil generators altogether[6:15]

Thought experiment: OPEC and an imaginary critical-minerals cartel

Tilleard asks listeners to imagine two cartels: the real OPEC, which seeks to control the price of oil, and an imaginary alliance of major miners of copper and lithium[6:29]
He says the imaginary cartel would consist of Chile, China, and Australia, which he names as major miners of copper and lithium today[6:36]
He jokingly names this imagined group the 'pisco sour Peking duck Foster's cartel' or PPF for short[6:51]
He invites listeners to imagine that each cartel, OPEC and PPF, seeks to cut off supply of its respective commodity to the rest of the world[6:59]

Impact before and after the energy transition in Talagnaro

Tilleard notes that before the energy transition in Talagnaro, an oil supply cutoff would have caused an instant crisis[7:10]
• He specifies that without oil, the lights in the community would go out and the mine would shut down
He contrasts this with the situation after the transition, saying that when the cartels act, nothing much changes in Talagnaro[7:21]
He explains that in a fuel-based world, a constant supply of fuel is existential, but in a technology-based world, this is no longer the case[7:28]

Why energy technologies are less existential and more circular than fuels

Durability of technologies versus continual fuel consumption

Tilleard explains that without a constant supply of lithium, existing lithium batteries keep working[7:34]
He notes that you do not need a constant supply of new copper for copper wires to keep conducting electricity[7:39]
He concludes that in a technology-based system, you do not require a constant supply of new materials just to survive[7:51]

Recyclability and circularity of renewable technologies

Tilleard states that approximately zero percent of the energy from oil can be recycled; once you burn it, it's gone[7:58]
He contrasts this with technology, noting that we do not burn technology; we use it[8:06]
He says that over 90 percent of renewable energy technologies can be recycled[8:14]
He projects that by 2050 there could be so much recycled supply that demand for new input materials could actually begin to decrease[8:20]

Fungibility of materials in the energy transition and elasticity of demand

Fungibility explained with substitution examples

Tilleard says technology is also more fungible, clarifying he is not talking about mushrooms but that the effect is 'magic'[8:36]
He asserts that almost every input into this energy transition can be substituted with another abundant material[8:42]
He gives the example that copper can be replaced by aluminium[8:50]
He adds that cobalt can be replaced in batteries by iron[8:57]
He notes that those substitutions have already happened in practice when prices temporarily spiked[9:02]

Implications of fungibility and circularity for demand

Tilleard argues that even without access to a specific critical mineral, the power of fungibility means you can continue to grow[9:08]
He summarizes that demand for new material in this transition will be fundamentally different because it is less existential, more circular, and more fungible[9:20]
He says these properties together mean demand is more flexible and more elastic[9:30]
He acknowledges that there is still a lot of energy transitioning left to do, so new supply is still needed[9:30]

Abundance of critical minerals and comparison with fossil fuel extraction

Overall material needs for the transition versus current fossil fuel use

Tilleard presents his 'final piece of good news' that materials needed for the energy transition are abundant[9:38]
He says that from now until 2050, humanity needs to extract around 230 million tons of end-use materials per year for the transition[9:58]
He compares this to current extraction of over 8 billion tons of coal every year[10:06]
He adds that every year 5 billion tons of oil and 3 billion tons of natural gas are also extracted just to fuel the existing energy system[10:19]
He concludes that in this context, 230 million tons looks manageable[10:25]

Geological abundance of critical minerals and rare earths

Tilleard notes that more material will be needed for elements like copper, lithium, graphite, and cobalt[10:32]
He says that when geologists estimate likely resources of these materials, they find that resources easily exceed projected demand[10:43]
He claims that even rare earths are not actually rare[10:49]
He explains that rare earths were called 'rare' because they were rarely found in their pure form and were always found with another material[10:55]
He jokes that rare earths are rare in the same way that 'Bert is rare without Ernie'[11:01]

Comparing oil and critical minerals: resource, reserves, and exploration

Tilleard notes that oil is different, but he says the identified resource of oil is also pretty abundant relative to demand[11:14]
He adds that identified reserves of oil are, like critical minerals, held in a very concentrated set of hands[11:18]
He then asks what is different between oil and critical minerals and answers that two things are different[11:25]
First, he says the identified resource of oil is the result of searching for it intensively for over 100 years[11:32]
He states that we know oil in general is quite rare in the earth's crust[11:43]
He contrasts this with critical minerals, saying we know most critical minerals are geologically abundant in the earth's crust[11:43]
He points out that exploration for many critical minerals has only just begun at scale[11:52]
He concludes that it is extremely likely that if we try, we can diversify sources of these minerals[11:52]
Second, he says that if confronted with the behavior of a PPF-style cartel, the elasticity of demand gives time and leverage to break the cartel or diversify supply[12:12]
He acknowledges that there will be short-term mismatches between supply and demand[12:17]
He asserts that control really matters when supply is scarce and demand is inelastic, but when supply is abundant and demand is elastic, control will always be temporary[12:25]

Historical copper cartels and why an OPEC for renewables is unlikely

Examples of failed cartels for transition minerals

Tilleard offers a final piece of evidence to tie his argument together: asking if anyone can name a successful cartel for an energy-transition mineral[12:47]
He lists several real copper cartels: the Secretan Copper Syndicate, the Amalgamated Copper Company, the Copper Exporters Association, the Copper Exporters Incorporated, and the International Copper Cartel[12:57]
He notes that these cartels are not particularly creatively named[13:01]
He states that all of these copper cartels failed[13:04]
He argues they failed because when supply is abundant and demand is elastic, a cartel has the lifespan of 'your average Game of Thrones character'[13:16]
He concludes that there will not be an OPEC for renewables[13:24]

Manufacturing abundance, comparative advantage, and future national power

Question of a 'Saudi Arabia of manufacturing' in the energy transition

Tilleard poses a follow-up concern: if not an OPEC for renewables, won't there be a 'Saudi Arabia of manufacturing' in this transition?[13:32]
He answers 'no', at least not for the same reasons as in oil[13:36]

Manufacturing as effectively abundant and non-zero-sum

Tilleard argues that manufacturing is effectively abundant[13:36]
He explains that one country's ability to manufacture does not constrain another country's ability to manufacture[13:41]
He characterizes manufacturing as not zero-sum, stating that nobody can stop you from making solar panels[13:46]
He notes that being good at building and making things creates wealth, and that wealth can lead to power[13:53]
However, he emphasizes that in this transition, it matters much less what a nation has and much more what it does[13:58]

Comparative advantage and policy focus for future 'great nations'

Tilleard claims that the great nations of tomorrow will not be those that focus on controlling materials and constraining others' growth[14:15]
He argues that great nations will instead focus on their comparative advantage[14:20]
He says they should identify and unlock the resources that everyone will need[14:20]
He adds that they should invent, build, and manufacture the technology that everyone will need[14:25]
He suggests that nations can then sell these technologies at 'great prices, terrific prices' to the rest of the world[14:32]
He states that this is what policymakers should focus on, not annexing another source of 'not particularly rare earths'[14:39]

The kind of leaders needed for the clean energy era

Tilleard argues that the leaders needed now are explorers, not exploiters[14:45]
He says they are builders, not warriors[14:52]
He adds that they are innovators, not conquerors[14:52]

Conclusion: removing fuel-tinted glasses and envisioning a shared energy future

Answering who will control the future of clean energy

Tilleard urges the audience to take off the fuel-tinted glasses together[14:58]
He repeats the question: who will control the future of clean energy?[15:14]
He answers that the future will be controlled by 'nobody' and that the answer can be 'everybody'[15:04]

Characteristics of the future energy system envisioned

Tilleard says the future of energy is not controlled; it is shared[15:14]
He contrasts extraction with construction, saying the future of energy is not extracted, it is built[15:14]
He concludes that the future of energy can belong to all of us[15:14]
He ends his talk with 'Thank you'[15:19]

Outro and contextual details from the host

Context of the talk and TED curation reference

Elise Hu identifies the speaker as Matt Tilleard and notes that the talk was delivered at the TED Countdown Summit in Nairobi, Kenya in 2025[15:25]
She invites curious listeners to find out more about TED's curation at ted.com/curationguidelines[15:37]

Production credits and sign-off

Elise states that TED Talks Daily is part of the TED Audio Collective[15:44]
She notes that the talk was fact-checked by the TED research team[15:44]
She credits members of the production and editing team by name[15:49]
• Names mentioned include Martha Estefanos, Oliver Friedman, Brian Green, Lucy Little, Tonsica Sungmar Nivong, Emma Tobner, and Daniella Balarezo
Elise says she will be back tomorrow with a fresh idea and thanks listeners for listening[16:07]

Lessons Learned

Actionable insights and wisdom you can apply to your business, career, and personal life.

1

When the underlying basis of a system changes-from fuel to technology in energy-you need to change the mental models you use, instead of applying outdated 'fuel-tinted' thinking to a new reality.

Reflection Questions:

  • • Where in my work or life am I still using old assumptions even though the underlying technology or context has changed?
  • • How might my decisions about investment, strategy, or learning shift if I consciously updated my mental model to match today's technological realities?
  • • What is one area this week where I can explicitly challenge an inherited belief and test whether it still fits current conditions?
2

Building systems that are durable, recyclable, and substitutable reduces existential dependence on any single input and gives you time and leverage when supply shocks occur.

Reflection Questions:

  • • Which of my current projects or operations rely critically on a single non-substitutable input or relationship?
  • • How could I redesign one important system in my life or business to be more circular (reusable) or to have alternative inputs?
  • • What concrete step could I take in the next month to make one key dependency less fragile and more flexible?
3

Abundance and elastic demand undermine attempts at control, so focusing on diversification and adaptability is a more resilient strategy than trying to corner scarce resources.

Reflection Questions:

  • • In what situations am I trying to 'control' a resource or outcome instead of building the ability to adapt if conditions change?
  • • How could I increase my options-through diversification of suppliers, skills, or partners-so that no single shock can derail my plans?
  • • What is one area where I can deliberately cultivate elasticity (flexible demand or usage) to reduce my exposure to scarcity or price spikes?
4

Long-term advantage comes less from owning raw resources and more from developing comparative advantages in inventing, building, and manufacturing things others need.

Reflection Questions:

  • • What unique skills, assets, or perspectives do I have that could become a genuine comparative advantage if I invested in them?
  • • How might my career or business change if I focused more on creating high-value products or services than on controlling inputs?
  • • What is one concrete capability I could start developing this quarter that would make me or my organization more valuable to others?
5

The leaders best suited for transformative eras are explorers, builders, and innovators who expand shared possibilities rather than exploiters and conquerors who focus on control.

Reflection Questions:

  • • When I am under pressure, do I tend to default to control and defensiveness, or to curiosity and creation?
  • • How could I lead more like an explorer or builder in my current role-what specific behaviors would need to change?
  • • What initiative could I start, even on a small scale, that embodies an innovative, value-creating approach rather than a zero-sum, power-hoarding one?

Episode Summary - Notes by Parker

The best thing that could happen to the energy industry | Matt Tilleard
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